Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds

August 4, 2026 · Jared Jones vs Logan Henderson · 82°F

1.3% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

44.1%

Milwaukee Brewers win

55.9%

Fair line (home)

-127

Proj. total

8.52

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.11)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.41)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.52

Over

54.0%

Under

46.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	44.1%	+129	+127
Milwaukee Brewers	55.9%	-140	-127

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.8	.909	.189	.011	.052	.227	.965	.259	.303	.341	.644
Brandon Lowe	4.6	.552	.165	.008	.268	.395	1.305	.236	.306	.470	.776
Bryan Reynolds	4.5	.634	.158	.019	.172	.438	1.198	.244	.326	.420	.746
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.4	.529	.156	.009	.202	.412	1.399	.226	.304	.422	.727
Spencer Horwitz	4.3	.631	.192	.010	.142	.518	.805	.259	.355	.429	.784
Nick Gonzales	4.2	.705	.181	.025	.089	.287	.920	.257	.316	.385	.701
Endy Rodríguez	4.1	.543	.159	.007	.117	.401	1.062	.225	.305	.367	.673
Jacob Gonzalez	4.0	.540	.137	.010	.120	.310	.910	.221	.288	.363	.651
Jared Triolo	3.9	.569	.133	.008	.074	.395	.988	.227	.312	.335	.647

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brice Turang	4.7	.741	.180	.025	.131	.524	1.130	.262	.348	.413	.761
Jackson Chourio	4.5	.714	.217	.015	.202	.338	1.046	.274	.334	.478	.811
Garrett Mitchell	4.4	.608	.176	.031	.135	.500	1.469	.244	.336	.410	.746
William Contreras	4.3	.724	.175	.005	.156	.532	.796	.282	.375	.455	.830
Christian Yelich	4.2	.648	.144	.010	.138	.514	1.125	.256	.352	.413	.765
Andrew Vaughn	4.1	.634	.181	.015	.132	.360	.854	.259	.331	.421	.753
Luis Lara	4.0	.645	.133	.021	.051	.440	.857	.242	.334	.335	.670
Cooper Pratt	3.9	.589	.118	.028	.063	.424	.797	.233	.325	.339	.664
David Hamilton	3.8	.521	.120	.028	.095	.369	.986	.226	.307	.362	.668

Data notes: home starter Logan Henderson: only 53 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections