Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds

August 6, 2026 · Braxton Ashcraft vs Dustin May · 78°F

1.6% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

47.9%

Milwaukee Brewers win

52.1%

Fair line (home)

-109

Proj. total

8.36

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.18)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.19)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.36

Over

52.8%

Under

47.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	47.9%	+112	+109
Milwaukee Brewers	52.1%	-121	-109

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.8	.955	.217	.013	.047	.231	.865	.274	.318	.359	.678
Brandon Lowe	4.7	.618	.181	.012	.233	.404	1.251	.246	.317	.458	.775
Bryan Reynolds	4.6	.694	.176	.019	.150	.462	1.119	.256	.342	.419	.761
Endy Rodríguez	4.5	.638	.183	.010	.102	.445	1.064	.233	.315	.361	.676
Spencer Horwitz	4.4	.681	.201	.011	.125	.531	.770	.269	.367	.427	.793
Nick Gonzales	4.3	.755	.204	.028	.072	.295	.842	.271	.331	.392	.724
Ronny Simon	4.2	.654	.165	.017	.064	.342	.914	.239	.309	.343	.652
Jacob Gonzalez	4.0	.581	.144	.008	.107	.311	.859	.228	.296	.358	.654
Henry Davis	3.9	.497	.140	.006	.133	.342	.971	.221	.303	.378	.681

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brice Turang	4.6	.772	.186	.023	.122	.467	1.088	.267	.344	.411	.755
Jackson Chourio	4.5	.729	.221	.017	.184	.303	1.010	.276	.330	.469	.799
Garrett Mitchell	4.4	.634	.181	.029	.126	.457	1.418	.249	.334	.407	.741
Andrew Vaughn	4.3	.679	.188	.017	.129	.340	.851	.259	.326	.415	.741
Christian Yelich	4.2	.674	.150	.010	.121	.464	1.094	.259	.347	.403	.750
Luis Lara	4.1	.683	.140	.025	.047	.415	.858	.248	.334	.339	.673
Gary Sánchez	4.0	.494	.117	.013	.173	.409	1.012	.228	.322	.418	.739
David Hamilton	3.9	.552	.122	.029	.090	.336	1.007	.226	.298	.354	.652
Cooper Pratt	3.7	.597	.119	.029	.055	.374	.737	.241	.325	.343	.668

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections