Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds

August 5, 2026 · Paul Skenes vs Kyle Harrison · 74°F

3.5% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

48.7%

Milwaukee Brewers win

51.3%

Fair line (home)

-105

Proj. total

7.64

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 3.89)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 3.75)

O/U line

Proj. total

7.64

Over

45.7%

Under

43.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	48.7%	+117	+105
Milwaukee Brewers	51.3%	-126	-105

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.7	.910	.202	.008	.053	.229	.962	.264	.309	.348	.657
Brandon Lowe	4.6	.555	.162	.009	.234	.413	1.329	.230	.305	.442	.746
Bryan Reynolds	4.5	.636	.168	.013	.158	.418	1.208	.243	.324	.408	.732
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.4	.539	.157	.011	.193	.433	1.377	.229	.313	.422	.735
Nick Gonzales	4.3	.725	.192	.026	.081	.305	.936	.260	.321	.383	.704
Endy Rodríguez	4.2	.562	.161	.006	.108	.400	1.102	.223	.304	.355	.658
Jared Triolo	4.1	.605	.150	.010	.072	.431	1.039	.231	.320	.338	.658
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.0	.544	.132	.012	.094	.374	1.233	.219	.298	.341	.639
Jhostynxon Garcia	3.9	.534	.130	.012	.108	.260	1.178	.220	.281	.355	.636

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brice Turang	4.6	.713	.170	.021	.104	.447	1.244	.246	.323	.375	.698
Jackson Chourio	4.4	.672	.211	.015	.166	.286	1.163	.258	.311	.438	.749
Garrett Mitchell	4.3	.583	.161	.028	.109	.431	1.587	.228	.312	.368	.680
William Contreras	4.2	.698	.171	.004	.125	.450	.904	.266	.349	.413	.762
Christian Yelich	4.1	.616	.137	.008	.121	.427	1.227	.240	.325	.380	.706
Andrew Vaughn	4.0	.609	.166	.014	.118	.300	.941	.246	.311	.395	.706
Luis Lara	3.9	.624	.128	.022	.042	.378	.960	.234	.318	.320	.637
Cooper Pratt	3.8	.555	.121	.030	.055	.366	.887	.225	.309	.327	.636
David Hamilton	3.7	.497	.110	.024	.079	.314	1.076	.212	.284	.330	.615

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections