Seattle Mariners vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds

August 18, 2026 · Bryce Miller vs Kyle Harrison · 79°F

12.1% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

50.4%

Milwaukee Brewers win

49.6%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

8.75

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.50)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.25)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.75

Over

55.6%

Under

44.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	50.4%	+156	-101
Milwaukee Brewers	49.6%	-171	+101

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Bryce Miller RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.1	5.2	5.1	1.8	2.4
Kyle Harrison LHP · Milwaukee Brewers	4.7	4.9	4.4	1.7	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Bryce Miller4+ 73%6+ 43%8+ 18%

Kyle Harrison4+ 69%6+ 39%8+ 15%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brendan Donovan	4.8	.780	.200	.015	.127	.485	.783	.265	.352	.410	.762
Randy Arozarena	4.7	.612	.172	.010	.175	.483	1.299	.238	.338	.414	.752
Dominic Canzone	4.6	.613	.181	.009	.234	.384	1.117	.250	.319	.467	.786
Julio Rodríguez	4.5	.683	.166	.010	.233	.343	1.062	.269	.334	.486	.820
Josh Naylor	4.4	.683	.167	.003	.178	.385	.727	.262	.333	.441	.774
Cole Young	4.3	.638	.160	.019	.107	.401	.835	.243	.324	.379	.703
Cal Raleigh	4.2	.398	.112	.003	.250	.465	1.292	.210	.306	.448	.754
Victor Robles	4.0	.622	.161	.010	.058	.295	.968	.233	.305	.330	.635
Brock Rodden	3.9	.512	.142	.008	.080	.240	1.248	.204	.263	.314	.577

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brice Turang	4.6	.725	.184	.025	.135	.442	1.087	.259	.333	.413	.745
Jackson Chourio	4.5	.687	.198	.015	.213	.277	1.016	.267	.317	.474	.791
Jake Bauers	4.4	.524	.153	.009	.214	.496	1.276	.235	.327	.447	.774
William Contreras	4.3	.708	.176	.004	.157	.446	.766	.275	.355	.448	.803
Christian Yelich	4.2	.623	.147	.012	.149	.433	1.101	.251	.334	.418	.752
Luis Lara	4.1	.647	.134	.022	.058	.398	.854	.237	.320	.334	.654
Garrett Mitchell	4.0	.541	.152	.026	.129	.398	1.304	.240	.322	.407	.729
Joey Ortiz	3.8	.614	.163	.012	.087	.300	.723	.249	.313	.377	.689
David Hamilton	3.7	.516	.111	.024	.102	.317	.958	.222	.292	.360	.652

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections