Seattle Mariners vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds

August 19, 2026 · Logan Gilbert vs Dustin May · 72°F

7.3% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

53.8%

Milwaukee Brewers win

46.2%

Fair line (home)

+116

Proj. total

8.61

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.63)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 3.99)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.61

Over

54.6%

Under

33.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	53.8%	+111	-116
Milwaukee Brewers	46.2%	-120	+116

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Logan Gilbert RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.5	5.8	5.3	1.6	2.3
Dustin May RHP · Milwaukee Brewers	5.0	4.8	4.8	2.0	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Logan Gilbert4+ 85%6+ 54%8+ 23%

Dustin May4+ 73%6+ 35%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brendan Donovan	4.8	.804	.201	.018	.113	.446	.769	.264	.346	.397	.743
Randy Arozarena	4.7	.616	.186	.007	.171	.487	1.207	.240	.345	.415	.760
Dominic Canzone	4.6	.647	.185	.009	.206	.381	1.088	.250	.318	.446	.764
Julio Rodríguez	4.5	.716	.168	.011	.213	.365	1.009	.272	.342	.476	.818
Josh Naylor	4.4	.714	.189	.003	.152	.388	.692	.266	.338	.430	.768
Cole Young	4.3	.681	.159	.028	.106	.365	.764	.252	.327	.390	.717
Cal Raleigh	4.2	.397	.116	.003	.232	.508	1.243	.206	.313	.432	.744
Taylor Ward	4.1	.526	.138	.011	.133	.535	1.019	.231	.341	.391	.732
Brock Rodden	4.0	.506	.142	.015	.117	.259	1.200	.213	.273	.355	.628

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brice Turang	4.6	.705	.172	.017	.124	.400	1.198	.246	.315	.385	.700
Jackson Chourio	4.5	.677	.199	.016	.189	.273	1.108	.261	.311	.453	.764
Jake Bauers	4.3	.522	.139	.015	.195	.488	1.325	.228	.321	.425	.747
William Contreras	4.2	.698	.176	.008	.149	.419	.809	.272	.349	.441	.790
Christian Yelich	4.1	.616	.138	.013	.134	.384	1.178	.242	.319	.395	.713
Andrew Vaughn	4.0	.610	.162	.015	.138	.272	.881	.249	.308	.411	.719
Luis Lara	3.9	.629	.141	.029	.051	.328	.936	.239	.310	.338	.648
Joey Ortiz	3.8	.587	.145	.023	.087	.267	.770	.240	.300	.369	.669
Cooper Pratt	3.7	.560	.111	.027	.076	.291	.837	.231	.298	.348	.646

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections