Seattle Mariners vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds

August 20, 2026 · George Kirby vs Robert Gasser · 73°F

8.4% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

52.8%

Milwaukee Brewers win

47.2%

Fair line (home)

+112

Proj. total

8.55

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.50)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.05)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.55

Over

46.2%

Under

46.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	52.8%	+121	-112
Milwaukee Brewers	47.2%	-131	+112

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
George Kirby RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.7	5.7	5.8	1.5	2.5
Robert Gasser LHP · Milwaukee Brewers	5.1	4.5	5.2	1.6	2.5

Strikeout ladder

George Kirby4+ 83%6+ 51%8+ 21%

Robert Gasser4+ 67%6+ 30%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brendan Donovan	4.8	.815	.195	.013	.114	.395	.727	.264	.341	.395	.736
Randy Arozarena	4.7	.643	.186	.009	.179	.419	1.156	.248	.342	.429	.772
Dominic Canzone	4.6	.648	.181	.008	.223	.330	1.046	.252	.313	.458	.771
Julio Rodríguez	4.5	.698	.175	.009	.225	.322	.968	.272	.334	.485	.819
Josh Naylor	4.3	.725	.182	.004	.167	.328	.637	.271	.333	.444	.777
Taylor Ward	4.3	.528	.157	.010	.158	.503	1.044	.230	.330	.406	.736
Cole Young	4.2	.674	.146	.029	.121	.312	.721	.257	.323	.407	.730
Jhonny Pereda	4.0	.657	.152	.005	.071	.319	.908	.240	.308	.342	.650
Brock Rodden	3.9	.501	.146	.011	.122	.211	1.179	.213	.265	.359	.624

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brice Turang	4.5	.768	.184	.020	.123	.361	1.078	.263	.324	.406	.730
Jackson Chourio	4.4	.707	.213	.017	.190	.246	1.005	.271	.316	.467	.783
Jake Bauers	4.3	.577	.150	.014	.195	.446	1.202	.243	.328	.442	.769
Gary Sánchez	4.2	.537	.139	.017	.208	.344	1.048	.237	.312	.446	.758
Christian Yelich	4.1	.661	.161	.016	.133	.349	1.064	.259	.328	.417	.746
Joey Ortiz	4.0	.667	.162	.026	.095	.255	.744	.254	.306	.387	.694
Garrett Mitchell	3.9	.577	.161	.025	.100	.340	1.249	.244	.317	.389	.706
David Hamilton	3.8	.554	.119	.022	.097	.258	.963	.225	.281	.354	.635
Luis Lara	3.7	.622	.143	.028	.054	.287	.764	.253	.319	.360	.679

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections