Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds

August 21, 2026 · Chris Sale vs Jacob Misiorowski · 72°F

8.6% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

52.4%

Milwaukee Brewers win

47.6%

Fair line (home)

+110

Proj. total

7.75

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.11)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 3.64)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.75

Over

57.7%

Under

33.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	52.4%	+124	-110
Milwaukee Brewers	47.6%	-135	+110

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Chris Sale LHP · Atlanta Braves	5.5	6.6	4.8	1.7	2.0
Jacob Misiorowski RHP · Milwaukee Brewers	5.3	6.7	4.4	2.1	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Chris Sale4+ 91%6+ 68%8+ 34%

Jacob Misiorowski4+ 92%6+ 69%8+ 35%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.8	.632	.143	.012	.188	.671	1.343	.243	.359	.425	.784
Drake Baldwin	4.6	.655	.130	.010	.184	.478	1.167	.238	.325	.408	.733
Matt Olson	4.5	.490	.175	.006	.218	.565	1.414	.227	.330	.441	.771
Michael Harris II	4.4	.682	.168	.022	.171	.206	1.169	.249	.291	.423	.713
Ozzie Albies	4.3	.616	.158	.008	.125	.345	.889	.232	.303	.372	.675
Mauricio Dubón	4.2	.686	.169	.012	.079	.258	.734	.241	.293	.351	.643
Dominic Smith	4.1	.587	.118	.013	.097	.348	1.041	.220	.297	.338	.635
Austin Riley	4.0	.478	.139	.009	.143	.317	1.424	.213	.287	.376	.663
Mike Yastrzemski	3.9	.407	.131	.013	.124	.441	1.180	.200	.301	.358	.659

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	4.5	.651	.200	.016	.176	.271	1.247	.249	.300	.431	.731
Brice Turang	4.4	.674	.152	.015	.108	.376	1.266	.238	.307	.366	.672
William Contreras	4.3	.675	.165	.008	.134	.405	.955	.256	.333	.408	.740
Andrew Vaughn	4.2	.599	.171	.013	.130	.284	1.039	.238	.300	.391	.690
Jake Bauers	4.1	.473	.133	.013	.166	.446	1.367	.218	.312	.401	.714
Gary Sánchez	4.0	.437	.110	.011	.172	.362	1.206	.206	.294	.390	.684
Joey Ortiz	3.9	.573	.146	.022	.073	.274	.879	.229	.290	.344	.634
Cooper Pratt	3.7	.540	.118	.029	.072	.283	.924	.223	.291	.338	.629
Luis Lara	3.6	.565	.129	.018	.050	.268	.935	.231	.299	.327	.626

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections