Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds

August 23, 2026 · Tyler Mahle vs Shane Drohan · 71°F

1.5% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

50.0%

Milwaukee Brewers win

50.0%

Fair line (home)

-100

Proj. total

9.02

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.61)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.40)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.02

Over

58.8%

Under

41.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	50.0%	+102	+100
Milwaukee Brewers	50.0%	-111	-100

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tyler Mahle RHP · Atlanta Braves	5.0	5.0	5.1	2.2	2.4
Shane Drohan LHP · Milwaukee Brewers	3.9	3.7	3.8	1.5	1.9

Strikeout ladder

Tyler Mahle4+ 75%6+ 38%8+ 12%

Shane Drohan4+ 52%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Michael Harris II	4.8	.804	.213	.025	.207	.218	.992	.274	.311	.468	.779
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.7	.673	.161	.014	.195	.656	1.051	.262	.373	.456	.828
Matt Olson	4.6	.553	.184	.006	.246	.564	1.179	.248	.346	.482	.827
Ozzie Albies	4.5	.688	.191	.007	.149	.314	.715	.251	.312	.410	.721
Drake Baldwin	4.4	.693	.138	.009	.187	.443	.866	.264	.345	.448	.793
Lane Thomas	4.3	.542	.177	.008	.129	.407	1.178	.223	.304	.375	.679
Mauricio Dubón	4.2	.722	.179	.012	.077	.240	.570	.254	.301	.365	.666
Austin Riley	4.0	.549	.152	.010	.158	.323	1.200	.236	.306	.412	.718
Sean Murphy	3.9	.445	.137	.007	.136	.391	1.139	.209	.302	.370	.672

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	4.6	.711	.224	.013	.205	.344	1.045	.270	.328	.473	.802
Brice Turang	4.5	.732	.174	.020	.130	.470	1.056	.262	.341	.412	.753
William Contreras	4.4	.734	.188	.010	.155	.484	.752	.279	.362	.452	.814
Jake Bauers	4.3	.531	.138	.015	.206	.568	1.198	.240	.346	.452	.798
Andrew Vaughn	4.2	.661	.171	.013	.143	.332	.816	.257	.323	.421	.743
Christian Yelich	4.1	.616	.139	.014	.141	.447	1.071	.251	.337	.413	.750
Joey Ortiz	4.0	.637	.157	.023	.098	.317	.736	.251	.316	.387	.703
Garrett Mitchell	3.9	.531	.150	.023	.112	.428	1.243	.239	.329	.394	.723
David Hamilton	3.8	.507	.118	.023	.095	.311	.964	.216	.285	.347	.631

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections