Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds

August 22, 2026 · Martín Pérez vs Logan Henderson · 75°F

7.5% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

47.3%

Milwaukee Brewers win

52.7%

Fair line (home)

-111

Proj. total

9.23

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.58)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.65)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.23

Over

60.2%

Under

39.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	47.3%	+146	+111
Milwaukee Brewers	52.7%	-159	-111

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Martín Pérez LHP · Atlanta Braves	4.1	3.2	4.6	2.0	2.2
Logan Henderson RHP · Milwaukee Brewers	4.7	4.8	4.5	1.5	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Martín Pérez4+ 41%6+ 10%8+ 1%

Logan Henderson4+ 73%6+ 35%8+ 9%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.8	.725	.144	.011	.240	.427	1.019	.261	.333	.467	.799
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.7	.650	.152	.014	.226	.592	1.134	.260	.361	.474	.836
Matt Olson	4.5	.543	.178	.007	.273	.494	1.255	.249	.335	.500	.835
Michael Harris II	4.4	.720	.179	.024	.203	.181	.987	.266	.300	.463	.763
Ozzie Albies	4.3	.640	.158	.009	.160	.308	.749	.243	.304	.408	.712
Mauricio Dubón	4.2	.719	.176	.012	.090	.220	.631	.250	.293	.369	.662
Mike Yastrzemski	4.1	.474	.144	.018	.167	.423	1.090	.219	.305	.405	.710
Austin Riley	4.0	.532	.148	.011	.177	.295	1.253	.237	.301	.429	.730
Jim Jarvis	3.9	.614	.148	.024	.061	.260	.821	.236	.294	.342	.636

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	4.7	.758	.225	.013	.208	.345	.957	.279	.337	.483	.820
Brice Turang	4.6	.749	.185	.021	.122	.497	.983	.266	.348	.412	.760
William Contreras	4.5	.764	.184	.011	.147	.519	.701	.283	.370	.448	.818
Jake Bauers	4.4	.571	.152	.016	.198	.589	1.105	.251	.358	.460	.818
Andrew Vaughn	4.3	.684	.185	.018	.154	.352	.750	.270	.338	.447	.786
Christian Yelich	4.1	.653	.151	.013	.140	.469	.984	.262	.351	.426	.777
Joey Ortiz	4.0	.659	.164	.026	.095	.330	.690	.256	.322	.392	.714
Luis Lara	3.9	.674	.153	.021	.055	.370	.746	.257	.334	.360	.694
Cooper Pratt	3.8	.603	.129	.030	.084	.354	.708	.247	.323	.375	.698

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections