Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds

September 7, 2026 · Matthew Boyd vs Robert Gasser · 70°F

1.5% edge · Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs win

48.2%

Milwaukee Brewers win

51.8%

Fair line (home)

-108

Proj. total

9.25

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 4.67)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.58)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.25

Over

52.9%

Under

47.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	48.2%	+110	+108
Milwaukee Brewers	51.8%	-119	-108

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Matthew Boyd LHP · Chicago Cubs	5.2	4.4	5.7	1.9	2.6
Robert Gasser LHP · Milwaukee Brewers	5.0	4.3	5.2	1.6	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Matthew Boyd4+ 65%6+ 27%8+ 7%

Robert Gasser4+ 63%6+ 25%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.8	.642	.189	.049	.268	.377	1.225	.262	.332	.512	.843
Seiya Suzuki	4.7	.644	.199	.015	.214	.516	1.189	.258	.345	.467	.813
Alex Bregman	4.6	.667	.190	.009	.191	.464	.693	.260	.345	.452	.797
Tyrone Taylor	4.5	.644	.214	.016	.154	.242	.973	.247	.301	.416	.717
Nico Hoerner	4.4	.859	.195	.014	.067	.296	.419	.282	.342	.387	.729
Matt Shaw	4.3	.612	.157	.032	.152	.380	.839	.248	.324	.424	.748
Carson Kelly	4.2	.629	.140	.006	.142	.395	.800	.246	.326	.401	.727
BJ Murray Jr.	4.1	.565	.118	.030	.121	.331	1.082	.226	.298	.373	.671
Pedro Ramírez	3.9	.702	.150	.026	.093	.234	.747	.265	.317	.396	.713

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	4.7	.775	.225	.016	.229	.331	.925	.288	.342	.506	.848
Brice Turang	4.6	.734	.180	.016	.139	.470	.976	.263	.342	.418	.759
William Contreras	4.5	.767	.199	.006	.158	.481	.703	.287	.369	.461	.831
Andrew Vaughn	4.3	.701	.192	.015	.152	.332	.764	.268	.332	.439	.771
Christian Yelich	4.2	.651	.160	.013	.152	.462	.987	.262	.350	.434	.784
Luis Lara	4.1	.712	.153	.024	.067	.359	.811	.257	.332	.365	.697
Cooper Pratt	4.0	.648	.137	.030	.087	.344	.751	.248	.321	.373	.694
Garrett Mitchell	3.9	.571	.165	.024	.120	.412	1.147	.254	.340	.420	.760
Joey Ortiz	3.8	.623	.157	.024	.094	.303	.643	.259	.323	.399	.722

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections