Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds

September 9, 2026 · Kevin Gausman vs Logan Henderson · 78°F

2.5% edge · Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs win

48.3%

Milwaukee Brewers win

51.7%

Fair line (home)

-107

Proj. total

9.42

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 4.80)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.62)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.42

Over

61.1%

Under

38.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	48.3%	+114	+107
Milwaukee Brewers	51.7%	-124	-107

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Kevin Gausman RHP · Chicago Cubs	5.3	4.8	5.7	1.9	2.6
Logan Henderson RHP · Milwaukee Brewers	4.8	5.1	4.6	1.7	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Kevin Gausman4+ 72%6+ 35%8+ 10%

Logan Henderson4+ 77%6+ 40%8+ 12%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.8	.606	.181	.049	.285	.372	1.335	.255	.321	.513	.834
Seiya Suzuki	4.7	.618	.187	.012	.226	.508	1.297	.250	.335	.463	.798
Michael Busch	4.6	.560	.167	.021	.227	.483	1.234	.241	.330	.461	.791
Alex Bregman	4.5	.633	.175	.008	.200	.447	.772	.254	.336	.453	.789
Ian Happ	4.4	.515	.158	.012	.182	.495	1.300	.225	.319	.414	.733
Nico Hoerner	4.3	.815	.175	.014	.073	.284	.474	.274	.331	.381	.712
Pedro Ramírez	4.2	.702	.148	.034	.105	.258	.883	.255	.307	.392	.698
Michael Conforto	4.0	.472	.139	.006	.178	.425	1.158	.222	.312	.414	.726
Carson Kelly	3.9	.561	.126	.006	.151	.371	.838	.239	.318	.407	.725

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	4.7	.758	.225	.014	.226	.321	1.018	.283	.335	.498	.834
Brice Turang	4.5	.732	.182	.019	.139	.467	1.056	.264	.342	.421	.762
William Contreras	4.4	.752	.193	.006	.165	.476	.775	.284	.364	.462	.826
Andrew Vaughn	4.3	.699	.196	.015	.159	.347	.826	.271	.335	.449	.784
Christian Yelich	4.2	.664	.159	.012	.156	.438	1.058	.264	.345	.437	.782
Sal Frelick	4.1	.762	.177	.013	.091	.343	.559	.278	.343	.405	.748
Joey Ortiz	4.0	.653	.171	.029	.105	.318	.718	.261	.323	.408	.731
Garrett Mitchell	3.9	.560	.158	.020	.122	.404	1.212	.248	.331	.410	.741
Cooper Pratt	3.8	.606	.123	.028	.089	.333	.759	.247	.320	.378	.697

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections