Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds

September 8, 2026 · David Peterson vs Jacob Misiorowski · 74°F

9.5% edge · Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs win

44.0%

Milwaukee Brewers win

56.0%

Fair line (home)

-127

Proj. total

8.95

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 4.29)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.65)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.95

Over

56.8%

Under

32.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	44.0%	+184	+127
Milwaukee Brewers	56.0%	-203	-127

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
David Peterson LHP · Chicago Cubs	4.5	3.9	5.0	2.1	2.3
Jacob Misiorowski RHP · Milwaukee Brewers	5.2	6.6	4.3	2.3	2.1

Strikeout ladder

David Peterson4+ 55%6+ 18%8+ 3%

Jacob Misiorowski4+ 92%6+ 67%8+ 34%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.8	.564	.167	.042	.227	.432	1.519	.233	.313	.449	.762
Seiya Suzuki	4.7	.580	.181	.009	.186	.565	1.481	.234	.333	.420	.753
Alex Bregman	4.6	.609	.163	.008	.166	.556	.917	.240	.343	.411	.754
Michael Busch	4.5	.502	.156	.021	.169	.539	1.338	.220	.327	.404	.730
Nico Hoerner	4.4	.802	.174	.012	.061	.348	.574	.267	.337	.364	.701
Ian Happ	4.3	.459	.143	.010	.139	.555	1.381	.205	.317	.364	.682
Matt Shaw	4.1	.535	.143	.033	.129	.415	1.022	.228	.315	.390	.705
Tyrone Taylor	4.0	.533	.173	.016	.130	.239	1.078	.229	.290	.389	.678
Miguel Amaya	3.9	.488	.137	.006	.103	.344	1.127	.211	.299	.342	.641

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	4.7	.770	.228	.013	.182	.378	.954	.278	.341	.465	.806
Brice Turang	4.6	.762	.183	.019	.117	.547	.960	.269	.359	.412	.771
Andrew Vaughn	4.5	.743	.202	.018	.135	.398	.790	.274	.347	.434	.781
William Contreras	4.4	.756	.199	.010	.136	.539	.688	.290	.383	.455	.838
Gary Sánchez	4.3	.527	.133	.013	.193	.504	.983	.235	.337	.434	.771
Luis Lara	4.2	.725	.160	.027	.057	.404	.810	.262	.344	.366	.710
Joey Ortiz	4.0	.669	.170	.030	.084	.373	.670	.261	.335	.394	.728
Garrett Mitchell	3.9	.583	.166	.023	.104	.464	1.159	.255	.350	.408	.758
Cooper Pratt	3.8	.614	.130	.032	.075	.377	.709	.250	.332	.374	.706

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections