Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds

September 11, 2026 · Andrew Abbott vs Dustin May · 70°F

5.0% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

40.7%

Milwaukee Brewers win

59.3%

Fair line (home)

-146

Proj. total

9.32

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.34)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.98)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.32

Over

53.6%

Under

39.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	40.7%	+174	+146
Milwaukee Brewers	59.3%	-191	-146

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Andrew Abbott LHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.0	4.3	5.5	2.2	2.7
Dustin May RHP · Milwaukee Brewers	4.8	5.2	4.5	1.8	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Andrew Abbott4+ 64%6+ 26%8+ 6%

Dustin May4+ 78%6+ 43%8+ 14%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Héctor Rodríguez	4.8	.699	.163	.028	.213	.284	1.088	.248	.299	.441	.741
Elly De La Cruz	4.7	.661	.180	.043	.178	.479	1.297	.257	.339	.450	.789
Sal Stewart	4.5	.686	.183	.003	.214	.411	.975	.265	.338	.468	.806
JJ Bleday	4.4	.503	.165	.020	.196	.574	1.072	.230	.334	.436	.771
Tyler Stephenson	4.3	.579	.162	.003	.138	.467	1.239	.230	.321	.383	.704
Eugenio Suárez	4.2	.449	.134	.002	.217	.410	1.386	.214	.304	.424	.729
Carlos Jorge	4.1	.660	.128	.027	.088	.244	1.045	.235	.288	.351	.639
Matt McLain	4.0	.502	.147	.003	.128	.412	1.158	.220	.311	.371	.682
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.9	.623	.139	.019	.079	.278	.804	.240	.301	.355	.656

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	4.7	.769	.232	.016	.246	.366	.936	.292	.350	.524	.874
Brice Turang	4.6	.738	.185	.023	.144	.534	.982	.270	.358	.435	.793
William Contreras	4.5	.775	.195	.009	.176	.539	.704	.295	.384	.485	.868
Andrew Vaughn	4.4	.716	.188	.019	.161	.378	.774	.274	.343	.453	.796
Jake Bauers	4.3	.525	.139	.013	.224	.649	1.089	.251	.370	.484	.854
Luis Lara	4.2	.711	.154	.025	.073	.392	.809	.257	.333	.370	.704
Cooper Pratt	4.0	.650	.134	.037	.098	.392	.735	.253	.331	.391	.722
Garrett Mitchell	3.9	.557	.172	.027	.129	.460	1.137	.257	.350	.435	.785
Joey Ortiz	3.8	.627	.161	.029	.100	.335	.635	.264	.332	.413	.745

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections