St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds

September 25, 2026 · Michael McGreevy vs Robert Gasser · 72°F

4.0% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

40.8%

Milwaukee Brewers win

59.2%

Fair line (home)

-145

Proj. total

8.92

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.16)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.77)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.92

Over

57.7%

Under

42.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	40.8%	+166	+145
Milwaukee Brewers	59.2%	-181	-145

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Michael McGreevy RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	5.0	3.7	6.0	1.7	2.6
Robert Gasser LHP · Milwaukee Brewers	5.1	4.4	5.0	1.6	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Michael McGreevy4+ 51%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Robert Gasser4+ 66%6+ 28%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.8	.770	.174	.006	.162	.462	.820	.264	.352	.424	.775
Iván Herrera	4.7	.759	.167	.009	.153	.464	.901	.269	.365	.428	.793
Jordan Walker	4.6	.690	.202	.006	.191	.330	1.197	.261	.322	.449	.771
Leo Bernal	4.5	.690	.160	.012	.137	.277	1.037	.241	.295	.385	.679
José Fermín	4.3	.681	.196	.004	.095	.417	.588	.253	.336	.379	.715
Thomas Saggese	4.3	.664	.173	.011	.115	.274	1.072	.246	.304	.384	.688
Masyn Winn	4.1	.652	.175	.017	.090	.315	.840	.248	.314	.375	.689
Pedro Pagés	4.0	.570	.140	.006	.117	.251	1.076	.223	.279	.358	.637
Victor Scott II	3.9	.578	.126	.016	.058	.281	.888	.218	.287	.311	.598

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Garrett Mitchell	4.7	.790	.237	.039	.121	.430	1.202	.280	.352	.440	.792
Brice Turang	4.6	.835	.213	.022	.115	.438	.853	.286	.357	.432	.788
William Contreras	4.5	.826	.218	.009	.151	.436	.600	.300	.372	.472	.844
Jake Bauers	4.4	.641	.173	.017	.177	.555	1.032	.266	.364	.461	.826
Christian Yelich	4.3	.759	.183	.016	.131	.409	.879	.285	.359	.444	.803
Joey Ortiz	4.2	.751	.191	.037	.089	.287	.619	.277	.332	.416	.747
Luis Lara	4.0	.775	.168	.040	.054	.328	.685	.282	.347	.393	.740
Sal Frelick	3.9	.789	.196	.013	.060	.293	.410	.293	.351	.403	.755
David Hamilton	3.8	.616	.138	.029	.084	.290	.762	.247	.309	.375	.684

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections