Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers — Prediction & Odds

September 13, 2026 · Chase Burns vs Robert Gasser · 62°F

9.1% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

47.2%

Milwaukee Brewers win

52.8%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

8.38

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.21)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.17)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.38

Over

44.9%

Under

47.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	47.2%	+157	+112
Milwaukee Brewers	52.8%	-172	-112

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Chase Burns RHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.1	6.4	4.6	2.1	2.1
Robert Gasser LHP · Milwaukee Brewers	5.1	5.1	4.8	1.6	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Chase Burns4+ 90%6+ 63%8+ 30%

Robert Gasser4+ 78%6+ 41%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dane Myers	4.7	.763	.163	.006	.122	.378	1.183	.246	.316	.372	.688
Elly De La Cruz	4.6	.674	.184	.031	.177	.402	1.265	.255	.326	.442	.768
Sal Stewart	4.5	.667	.184	.003	.213	.373	.972	.261	.328	.463	.791
Eugenio Suárez	4.4	.474	.140	.002	.237	.384	1.414	.216	.300	.433	.733
Tyler Stephenson	4.3	.585	.166	.003	.142	.419	1.211	.233	.316	.389	.705
JJ Bleday	4.2	.465	.155	.017	.171	.483	.994	.219	.314	.410	.724
Juan Brito	4.1	.552	.160	.011	.087	.335	.925	.219	.292	.338	.630
Jose Trevino	4.0	.633	.145	.004	.108	.202	.690	.238	.283	.366	.650
Héctor Rodríguez	3.9	.568	.135	.022	.158	.213	.852	.245	.294	.427	.720

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Garrett Mitchell	4.6	.636	.180	.031	.124	.488	1.570	.238	.324	.388	.712
Jackson Chourio	4.5	.698	.199	.013	.200	.336	1.119	.268	.326	.467	.793
Brice Turang	4.4	.669	.153	.015	.118	.482	1.143	.246	.331	.384	.715
Gary Sánchez	4.3	.484	.119	.013	.194	.499	1.182	.218	.319	.413	.732
Jake Bauers	4.2	.483	.131	.013	.183	.604	1.265	.229	.346	.428	.774
Christian Yelich	4.1	.594	.147	.012	.134	.461	1.154	.248	.339	.409	.747
Joey Ortiz	4.0	.622	.157	.026	.085	.325	.828	.247	.313	.376	.689
Luis Lara	3.8	.612	.125	.029	.053	.375	.903	.239	.321	.339	.660
Cooper Pratt	3.7	.577	.112	.029	.075	.336	.830	.236	.312	.354	.666

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections