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4.8% edge · Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds
July 10, 2026 · Grayson Rodriguez vs Zebby Matthews · 86°F
Los Angeles Angels win
45.9%
Minnesota Twins win
54.1%
Fair line (home)
-118
Proj. total
8.95
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Los Angeles Angels (mean 4.38)Minnesota Twins (mean 4.57)
Totals
O/U line
9.5
Proj. total
8.95
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels | 45.9% | +138 | +118 |
| Minnesota Twins | 54.1% | -151 | -118 |
Los Angeles Angels — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Neto | 4.8 | .658 | .210 | .017 | .228 | .311 | 1.201 | .255 | .317 | .467 | .784 |
| Nolan Schanuel | 4.7 | .861 | .198 | .008 | .144 | .416 | .620 | .289 | .360 | .443 | .804 |
| Vaughn Grissom | 4.5 | .839 | .205 | .008 | .108 | .289 | .769 | .275 | .328 | .404 | .732 |
| Jorge Soler | 4.4 | .567 | .159 | .011 | .209 | .378 | 1.210 | .235 | .307 | .436 | .743 |
| Josh Lowe | 4.3 | .649 | .201 | .015 | .165 | .288 | 1.107 | .256 | .309 | .436 | .745 |
| Jo Adell | 4.2 | .595 | .162 | .015 | .239 | .203 | .974 | .256 | .302 | .485 | .787 |
| Oswald Peraza | 4.1 | .621 | .143 | .020 | .132 | .214 | 1.050 | .238 | .286 | .388 | .675 |
| Wade Meckler | 4.0 | .738 | .171 | .015 | .059 | .336 | .851 | .270 | .335 | .374 | .708 |
| Tyler Heineman | 3.9 | .629 | .119 | .016 | .066 | .238 | .811 | .232 | .291 | .329 | .620 |
Minnesota Twins — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | 4.6 | .692 | .179 | .014 | .158 | .529 | 1.063 | .257 | .347 | .424 | .771 |
| Ryan Jeffers | 4.5 | .631 | .185 | .014 | .188 | .524 | .926 | .260 | .357 | .458 | .815 |
| Kody Clemens | 4.4 | .586 | .173 | .036 | .209 | .353 | 1.042 | .251 | .318 | .468 | .786 |
| Josh Bell | 4.3 | .653 | .153 | .012 | .163 | .453 | .888 | .257 | .341 | .432 | .773 |
| Royce Lewis | 4.2 | .595 | .173 | .003 | .201 | .372 | .984 | .256 | .326 | .461 | .787 |
| Brooks Lee | 4.1 | .657 | .149 | .020 | .143 | .302 | .689 | .258 | .318 | .422 | .741 |
| Alan Roden | 4.0 | .628 | .157 | .017 | .099 | .410 | .801 | .257 | .346 | .396 | .742 |
| Tristan Gray | 3.9 | .504 | .160 | .014 | .128 | .274 | 1.162 | .226 | .286 | .386 | .672 |
| Luke Keaschall | 3.8 | .641 | .164 | .010 | .067 | .408 | .611 | .269 | .362 | .387 | .749 |
Data notes: away starter Grayson Rodriguez: only 67 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Grayson Rodriguez: only 56 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections