Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

July 9, 2026 · Gavin Williams vs Bailey Ober · 85°F

3.6% edge · Minnesota Twins

Cleveland Guardians win

50.3%

Minnesota Twins win

49.7%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

8.34

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.29)Minnesota Twins (mean 4.05)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.34

Over

44.6%

Under

55.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cleveland Guardians	50.3%	-122	-101
Minnesota Twins	49.7%	+113	+101

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Travis Bazzana	4.8	.694	.215	.027	.124	.456	1.105	.250	.330	.401	.731
Brayan Rocchio	4.6	.765	.197	.026	.120	.303	.706	.260	.320	.403	.723
Chase DeLauter	4.5	.744	.205	.020	.181	.352	.656	.277	.337	.467	.804
Kyle Manzardo	4.4	.562	.163	.018	.240	.377	1.079	.246	.318	.475	.793
Kahlil Watson	4.3	.540	.154	.018	.168	.315	1.312	.222	.287	.397	.683
Gabriel Arias	4.2	.608	.184	.020	.151	.227	1.223	.244	.293	.416	.709
Daniel Schneemann	4.1	.564	.165	.011	.118	.337	1.058	.229	.297	.374	.671
Patrick Bailey	4.0	.583	.127	.023	.093	.271	.981	.224	.282	.346	.628
Steven Kwan	3.9	.743	.161	.010	.076	.341	.350	.283	.350	.399	.749

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trevor Larnach	4.6	.662	.166	.015	.142	.587	1.158	.250	.352	.408	.759
Brooks Lee	4.5	.704	.164	.016	.141	.353	.880	.251	.316	.402	.718
Kody Clemens	4.3	.554	.172	.029	.177	.353	1.144	.236	.305	.428	.734
Josh Bell	4.3	.621	.140	.005	.144	.466	.990	.243	.333	.398	.731
Royce Lewis	4.2	.568	.166	.004	.183	.377	1.049	.246	.318	.438	.757
Alan Roden	4.0	.624	.166	.017	.089	.446	.872	.253	.347	.385	.733
Luke Keaschall	3.9	.674	.169	.016	.057	.412	.728	.265	.353	.372	.726
Tristan Gray	3.8	.490	.149	.014	.126	.276	1.224	.221	.283	.378	.661
Alex Jackson	3.7	.417	.137	.007	.127	.269	1.303	.203	.269	.360	.629

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections