Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

July 11, 2026 · Ryan Johnson vs Joe Ryan · 90°F

7.0% edge · Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels win

45.5%

Minnesota Twins win

54.5%

Fair line (home)

-120

Proj. total

8.86

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Angels (mean 4.32)Minnesota Twins (mean 4.54)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.86

Over

40.0%

Under

49.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Angels	45.5%	+155	+120
Minnesota Twins	54.5%	-169	-120

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.7	.591	.193	.016	.222	.296	1.379	.235	.299	.441	.740
Mike Trout	4.6	.536	.143	.010	.259	.577	1.424	.238	.342	.474	.815
Nolan Schanuel	4.5	.784	.182	.007	.137	.395	.738	.274	.349	.424	.772
Jorge Soler	4.4	.520	.150	.009	.205	.362	1.380	.221	.293	.416	.709
Vaughn Grissom	4.3	.747	.192	.005	.103	.272	.845	.263	.318	.392	.710
Jo Adell	4.2	.559	.148	.014	.234	.199	1.123	.243	.293	.466	.760
Wade Meckler	4.1	.711	.154	.014	.059	.353	1.005	.253	.322	.349	.671
Denzer Guzman	4.0	.603	.154	.011	.107	.242	1.121	.236	.287	.370	.657
Logan O'Hoppe	3.9	.552	.110	.007	.157	.227	1.103	.230	.284	.395	.679

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trevor Larnach	4.6	.733	.193	.015	.166	.502	.944	.271	.356	.448	.804
Brooks Lee	4.5	.729	.164	.021	.170	.315	.713	.261	.318	.433	.751
Josh Bell	4.4	.667	.158	.011	.172	.438	.845	.257	.338	.435	.773
Kody Clemens	4.3	.573	.175	.035	.210	.312	.954	.253	.315	.475	.790
Royce Lewis	4.2	.598	.181	.004	.203	.347	.938	.259	.325	.468	.793
Victor Caratini	4.1	.687	.125	.006	.133	.329	.735	.260	.338	.407	.744
Alan Roden	4.0	.645	.169	.015	.110	.404	.745	.268	.355	.419	.774
Tristan Gray	3.9	.508	.160	.013	.120	.262	1.097	.224	.283	.378	.661
Luke Keaschall	3.7	.659	.163	.013	.070	.393	.583	.276	.366	.398	.764

Data notes: away starter Ryan Johnson: only 72 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Ryan Johnson: only 59 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 90F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections