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7.7% edge · AthleticsAthletics vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds
July 25, 2026 · Brady Basso vs Mike Paredes · 87°F
Athletics win
50.1%
Minnesota Twins win
49.9%
Fair line (home)
+100
Proj. total
10.09
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Athletics (mean 5.20)Minnesota Twins (mean 4.90)
Totals
O/U line
10.5
Proj. total
10.09
Over
43.0%
Under
57.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 50.1% | +131 | -100 |
| Minnesota Twins | 49.9% | -142 | +100 |
Athletics — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Wilson | 4.9 | 1.027 | .263 | .008 | .128 | .272 | .363 | .310 | .356 | .455 | .810 |
| Nick Kurtz | 4.8 | .638 | .197 | .016 | .321 | .694 | 1.223 | .287 | .395 | .580 | .975 |
| Tyler Soderstrom | 4.7 | .701 | .229 | .018 | .233 | .458 | .790 | .281 | .358 | .511 | .868 |
| Jonah Heim | 4.6 | .719 | .170 | .007 | .166 | .319 | .731 | .250 | .306 | .410 | .717 |
| Tommy White | 4.5 | .825 | .204 | .014 | .123 | .194 | .622 | .275 | .314 | .417 | .731 |
| Donovan Walton | 4.4 | .738 | .175 | .012 | .100 | .344 | .641 | .258 | .325 | .384 | .709 |
| Jeff McNeil | 4.3 | .757 | .193 | .022 | .096 | .316 | .441 | .276 | .341 | .412 | .753 |
| Henry Bolte | 4.1 | .733 | .180 | .029 | .127 | .311 | 1.040 | .284 | .348 | .448 | .796 |
| Lawrence Butler | 4.0 | .592 | .184 | .012 | .163 | .363 | .886 | .260 | .329 | .451 | .780 |
Minnesota Twins — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | 4.7 | .748 | .200 | .012 | .162 | .559 | .958 | .274 | .367 | .447 | .814 |
| Byron Buxton | 4.6 | .616 | .197 | .030 | .280 | .389 | 1.131 | .272 | .345 | .538 | .883 |
| Kody Clemens | 4.5 | .614 | .189 | .035 | .210 | .347 | .990 | .257 | .323 | .476 | .798 |
| Josh Bell | 4.3 | .680 | .163 | .013 | .171 | .429 | .830 | .264 | .344 | .445 | .789 |
| Royce Lewis | 4.3 | .636 | .192 | .004 | .202 | .388 | .911 | .270 | .341 | .480 | .821 |
| Victor Caratini | 4.1 | .723 | .134 | .004 | .120 | .347 | .740 | .266 | .346 | .403 | .748 |
| Alan Roden | 4.0 | .676 | .170 | .016 | .101 | .432 | .739 | .272 | .362 | .414 | .776 |
| Brooks Lee | 3.9 | .670 | .150 | .017 | .139 | .280 | .629 | .269 | .327 | .434 | .761 |
| Ryan Kreidler | 3.8 | .502 | .140 | .024 | .094 | .411 | 1.075 | .226 | .318 | .366 | .684 |
Data notes: home starter Mike Paredes: only 58 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Brady Basso: only 13 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Brady Basso: only 28 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections