Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

July 29, 2026 · Randy Dobnak vs Joe Ryan · 91°F

2.0% edge · Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals win

37.4%

Minnesota Twins win

62.6%

Fair line (home)

-167

Proj. total

9.37

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 4.13)Minnesota Twins (mean 5.24)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.37

Over

43.9%

Under

45.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	37.4%	+177	+167
Minnesota Twins	62.6%	-194	-167

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.652	.209	.012	.181	.367	1.336	.245	.307	.425	.732
Lane Thomas	4.6	.634	.199	.011	.165	.347	1.223	.240	.306	.411	.717
Jac Caglianone	4.5	.664	.174	.024	.228	.269	1.235	.262	.315	.480	.795
Salvador Perez	4.4	.665	.168	.003	.214	.159	.957	.253	.292	.450	.742
Michael Massey	4.3	.700	.209	.009	.149	.168	.817	.262	.296	.427	.724
Nick Loftin	4.2	.652	.183	.030	.099	.335	.701	.255	.326	.398	.723
Isaac Collins	4.1	.594	.169	.018	.087	.398	.991	.241	.328	.370	.698
Josh Rojas	4.0	.618	.171	.011	.081	.269	.902	.241	.298	.361	.660
Tyler Tolbert	3.8	.622	.155	.013	.055	.205	1.022	.237	.287	.334	.621

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trevor Larnach	4.8	.844	.237	.018	.149	.536	.759	.300	.386	.472	.858
Brooks Lee	4.6	.861	.192	.027	.148	.321	.555	.287	.342	.449	.792
Kody Clemens	4.5	.690	.208	.040	.199	.344	.779	.276	.340	.492	.832
Josh Bell	4.4	.777	.183	.013	.154	.439	.667	.288	.365	.459	.824
Royce Lewis	4.3	.711	.208	.004	.189	.360	.738	.285	.350	.486	.836
Victor Caratini	4.2	.798	.148	.005	.123	.355	.589	.289	.368	.430	.798
Alan Roden	4.1	.747	.199	.019	.098	.412	.599	.296	.380	.443	.823
Luke Keaschall	4.0	.778	.193	.014	.067	.407	.473	.302	.387	.423	.810
Ryan Kreidler	3.9	.580	.152	.025	.087	.416	.916	.248	.338	.385	.723

Data notes: away starter Randy Dobnak: only 51 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Randy Dobnak: only 29 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 91F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections