Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

July 28, 2026 · Seth Lugo vs Taj Bradley · 89°F

2.7% edge · Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals win

41.2%

Minnesota Twins win

58.8%

Fair line (home)

-142

Proj. total

10.02

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 4.68)Minnesota Twins (mean 5.34)

O/U line

Proj. total

10.02

Over

49.1%

Under

40.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	41.2%	+154	+142
Minnesota Twins	58.8%	-169	-142

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.8	.671	.223	.016	.178	.469	1.267	.250	.326	.432	.757
Lane Thomas	4.7	.673	.201	.013	.168	.445	1.182	.250	.328	.423	.751
Jac Caglianone	4.6	.672	.193	.022	.229	.362	1.168	.266	.330	.486	.816
Salvador Perez	4.5	.682	.173	.004	.215	.215	.934	.255	.300	.451	.751
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.4	.649	.188	.020	.188	.425	.709	.266	.342	.467	.809
Nick Loftin	4.3	.677	.192	.028	.103	.424	.653	.263	.343	.409	.752
Michael Massey	4.2	.708	.202	.009	.132	.211	.743	.267	.308	.423	.732
Isaac Collins	4.1	.604	.186	.019	.090	.492	.907	.256	.355	.397	.752
Josh Rojas	4.0	.613	.173	.012	.072	.331	.840	.242	.309	.357	.666

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trevor Larnach	4.7	.802	.214	.017	.176	.496	.904	.289	.370	.476	.846
Byron Buxton	4.6	.643	.208	.034	.317	.347	1.059	.286	.349	.579	.928
Ryan Jeffers	4.5	.711	.212	.013	.212	.467	.769	.291	.377	.513	.890
Kody Clemens	4.4	.641	.197	.040	.231	.310	.880	.276	.335	.517	.851
Josh Bell	4.3	.713	.161	.014	.182	.413	.750	.280	.355	.472	.827
Victor Caratini	4.2	.746	.141	.006	.140	.338	.679	.276	.351	.430	.781
Luke Keaschall	4.1	.759	.198	.014	.082	.402	.548	.294	.377	.425	.802
Brooks Lee	4.0	.700	.155	.019	.152	.265	.570	.280	.334	.457	.791
Ryan Kreidler	3.8	.540	.151	.021	.106	.397	1.023	.241	.327	.392	.719

Data notes: game-time temp 89F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections