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0.2% edge · Minnesota TwinsBaltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds
August 10, 2026 · Trevor Rogers vs Dean Kremer · 87°F
Baltimore Orioles win
49.6%
Minnesota Twins win
50.4%
Fair line (home)
-102
Proj. total
9.67
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.98)Minnesota Twins (mean 4.69)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
9.67
Over
56.1%
Under
43.9%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 49.6% | -103 | +102 |
| Minnesota Twins | 50.4% | -105 | -102 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson | 4.8 | .741 | .215 | .036 | .230 | .437 | .955 | .279 | .350 | .502 | .852 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.7 | .638 | .193 | .006 | .307 | .439 | 1.068 | .270 | .348 | .536 | .884 |
| Jackson Holliday | 4.6 | .688 | .173 | .029 | .153 | .460 | 1.017 | .252 | .333 | .419 | .752 |
| Tyler O'Neill | 4.5 | .592 | .152 | .010 | .245 | .444 | 1.232 | .248 | .329 | .473 | .801 |
| Dylan Beavers | 4.4 | .658 | .182 | .017 | .136 | .499 | .950 | .255 | .343 | .416 | .759 |
| Leody Taveras | 4.3 | .706 | .143 | .050 | .111 | .303 | .917 | .253 | .308 | .397 | .705 |
| Coby Mayo | 4.2 | .535 | .179 | .014 | .201 | .346 | 1.150 | .244 | .313 | .457 | .770 |
| Colton Cowser | 4.1 | .564 | .152 | .009 | .178 | .376 | 1.200 | .246 | .322 | .437 | .759 |
| Carlos Narváez | 4.0 | .552 | .172 | .005 | .120 | .346 | 1.059 | .236 | .310 | .388 | .697 |
Minnesota Twins — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Martin | 4.7 | .849 | .217 | .009 | .049 | .571 | .742 | .276 | .371 | .370 | .741 |
| Ryan Jeffers | 4.6 | .724 | .210 | .012 | .194 | .485 | .803 | .283 | .369 | .485 | .853 |
| Royce Lewis | 4.5 | .678 | .201 | .004 | .222 | .365 | .915 | .270 | .334 | .484 | .818 |
| Josh Bell | 4.4 | .713 | .164 | .010 | .160 | .390 | .807 | .266 | .338 | .435 | .773 |
| Luke Keaschall | 4.3 | .780 | .203 | .015 | .077 | .431 | .601 | .286 | .370 | .410 | .780 |
| Brooks Lee | 4.2 | .716 | .162 | .015 | .144 | .256 | .623 | .268 | .318 | .431 | .749 |
| Kaelen Culpepper | 4.0 | .680 | .157 | .014 | .121 | .338 | .759 | .266 | .335 | .415 | .751 |
| Victor Caratini | 3.9 | .696 | .135 | .004 | .130 | .299 | .680 | .271 | .342 | .421 | .763 |
| Ryan Kreidler | 3.8 | .506 | .148 | .024 | .088 | .393 | 1.052 | .226 | .312 | .361 | .673 |
Data notes: home starter Dean Kremer: only 68 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections