Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

July 30, 2026 · Noah Cameron vs Bailey Ober · 87°F

0.9% edge · Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals win

45.3%

Minnesota Twins win

54.7%

Fair line (home)

-121

Proj. total

9.46

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 4.61)Minnesota Twins (mean 4.85)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.46

Over

44.6%

Under

45.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	45.3%	+121	+121
Minnesota Twins	54.7%	-131	-121

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.8	.696	.225	.017	.219	.363	1.137	.263	.322	.471	.794
John Rave	4.7	.686	.184	.034	.156	.359	1.099	.248	.310	.417	.726
Jac Caglianone	4.5	.697	.198	.025	.257	.265	1.061	.278	.327	.518	.845
Salvador Perez	4.5	.714	.186	.003	.246	.168	.794	.273	.311	.494	.804
Michael Massey	4.3	.752	.221	.011	.157	.171	.669	.276	.309	.449	.758
Nick Loftin	4.2	.694	.186	.027	.116	.348	.562	.267	.336	.420	.755
Isaac Collins	4.1	.626	.190	.023	.101	.415	.828	.257	.342	.405	.747
Josh Rojas	4.0	.643	.189	.011	.089	.277	.767	.250	.306	.379	.685
Tyler Tolbert	3.9	.668	.166	.015	.065	.203	.887	.250	.297	.357	.654

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Austin Martin	4.7	.843	.224	.009	.050	.548	.721	.277	.371	.374	.745
Ryan Jeffers	4.6	.706	.212	.013	.193	.490	.795	.282	.371	.487	.857
Royce Lewis	4.5	.681	.206	.004	.221	.354	.914	.274	.336	.489	.825
Josh Bell	4.3	.735	.168	.007	.181	.396	.763	.280	.353	.466	.818
Kody Clemens	4.2	.608	.181	.037	.201	.307	.874	.264	.324	.484	.808
Luke Keaschall	4.1	.778	.196	.015	.080	.409	.576	.292	.374	.419	.794
Brooks Lee	4.0	.715	.156	.017	.142	.263	.575	.276	.329	.441	.770
Alex Jackson	3.9	.510	.166	.009	.157	.250	1.119	.233	.291	.413	.704
Ryan Kreidler	3.8	.531	.146	.022	.098	.393	1.007	.237	.324	.381	.705

Data notes: game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections