Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

August 11, 2026 · Brandon Young vs Bailey Ober · 89°F

1.6% edge · Minnesota Twins

Baltimore Orioles win

46.4%

Minnesota Twins win

53.6%

Fair line (home)

-116

Proj. total

10.04

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.95)Minnesota Twins (mean 5.09)

O/U line

Proj. total

10.04

Over

49.1%

Under

40.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	46.4%	+105	+116
Minnesota Twins	53.6%	-113	-116

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gunnar Henderson	4.8	.721	.211	.035	.259	.381	.932	.281	.345	.524	.869
Pete Alonso	4.7	.642	.197	.006	.329	.392	1.017	.279	.351	.563	.913
Jackson Holliday	4.6	.695	.170	.029	.159	.402	.989	.255	.326	.426	.752
Tyler O'Neill	4.5	.594	.160	.011	.256	.393	1.168	.254	.327	.491	.818
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.3	.623	.181	.020	.224	.159	1.145	.252	.287	.467	.754
Coby Mayo	4.2	.552	.183	.014	.234	.305	1.151	.253	.314	.488	.802
Christian Franklin	4.1	.613	.146	.017	.087	.379	1.099	.233	.312	.352	.664
Jeremiah Jackson	4.0	.658	.186	.010	.160	.136	.818	.263	.292	.440	.732
Yohel Pozo	3.9	.698	.179	.007	.137	.106	.504	.270	.294	.430	.724

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trevor Larnach	4.7	.763	.209	.014	.177	.493	.932	.279	.359	.463	.822
Ryan Jeffers	4.6	.706	.217	.013	.212	.475	.825	.284	.368	.502	.870
Josh Bell	4.5	.729	.167	.015	.191	.421	.802	.274	.346	.465	.811
Kody Clemens	4.4	.609	.185	.034	.225	.297	.924	.261	.318	.491	.809
Royce Lewis	4.3	.656	.189	.005	.222	.335	.875	.275	.335	.496	.831
Brooks Lee	4.2	.726	.167	.025	.166	.275	.618	.281	.332	.466	.798
Luke Keaschall	4.0	.759	.182	.014	.080	.400	.590	.288	.369	.413	.782
Alan Roden	3.9	.678	.179	.017	.105	.370	.701	.277	.354	.427	.780
Kaelen Culpepper	3.8	.640	.145	.015	.124	.305	.736	.266	.332	.424	.755

Data notes: game-time temp 89F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections