Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

August 12, 2026 · Shane Baz vs Zebby Matthews · 90°F

4.4% edge · Minnesota Twins

Baltimore Orioles win

45.6%

Minnesota Twins win

54.4%

Fair line (home)

-119

Proj. total

9.61

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.70)Minnesota Twins (mean 4.91)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.61

Over

55.8%

Under

44.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	45.6%	-104	+119
Minnesota Twins	54.4%	-104	-119

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gunnar Henderson	4.8	.739	.223	.040	.227	.387	.960	.281	.344	.505	.849
Pete Alonso	4.7	.641	.207	.006	.299	.413	1.039	.274	.347	.538	.886
Jackson Holliday	4.6	.712	.170	.032	.145	.424	.996	.257	.331	.419	.751
Tyler O'Neill	4.5	.609	.154	.011	.229	.387	1.228	.248	.319	.461	.780
Dylan Beavers	4.4	.669	.186	.015	.133	.449	.948	.257	.337	.415	.752
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.3	.627	.182	.019	.201	.157	1.131	.253	.287	.456	.743
Leody Taveras	4.2	.684	.149	.049	.110	.260	.891	.256	.305	.405	.710
Christian Franklin	4.0	.599	.150	.017	.081	.365	1.079	.233	.310	.350	.660
Carlos Narváez	3.9	.558	.167	.006	.120	.306	1.048	.238	.304	.388	.692

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trevor Larnach	4.7	.745	.199	.012	.166	.545	.983	.272	.362	.447	.810
Royce Lewis	4.6	.687	.202	.003	.233	.399	1.004	.271	.339	.489	.828
Josh Bell	4.5	.702	.171	.012	.189	.459	.871	.271	.351	.462	.813
Kody Clemens	4.3	.583	.182	.033	.221	.339	.985	.256	.322	.486	.807
Brooks Lee	4.3	.716	.159	.022	.163	.308	.680	.271	.329	.449	.777
Luke Keaschall	4.2	.764	.188	.013	.087	.433	.636	.289	.376	.420	.796
Victor Caratini	4.0	.703	.126	.006	.139	.345	.737	.269	.347	.423	.771
Alan Roden	3.9	.651	.171	.013	.110	.410	.734	.273	.361	.425	.786
Ryan Kreidler	3.8	.504	.137	.022	.109	.407	1.084	.229	.319	.381	.700

Data notes: game-time temp 90F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections