Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

August 15, 2026 · Jesús Luzardo vs Connor Prielipp · 82°F

0.2% edge · Minnesota Twins

Philadelphia Phillies win

53.8%

Minnesota Twins win

46.2%

Fair line (home)

+117

Proj. total

8.72

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.65)Minnesota Twins (mean 4.07)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.72

Over

47.5%

Under

44.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	53.8%	-123	-117
Minnesota Twins	46.2%	+113	+117

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.8	.490	.125	.012	.293	.755	1.479	.228	.357	.483	.840
Trea Turner	4.8	.871	.202	.021	.125	.311	.940	.278	.331	.419	.750
Bryce Harper	4.6	.649	.213	.013	.206	.628	1.006	.272	.376	.488	.863
Luis Arraez	4.5	1.054	.203	.043	.043	.249	.202	.317	.359	.416	.775
Alec Bohm	4.4	.788	.189	.015	.120	.310	.693	.273	.332	.416	.748
Edmundo Sosa	4.3	.701	.172	.027	.130	.172	.970	.254	.297	.405	.703
Bryson Stott	4.2	.719	.157	.030	.088	.364	.718	.261	.330	.387	.717
J.T. Realmuto	4.1	.626	.171	.012	.113	.278	.955	.246	.310	.389	.698
Derek Hill	4.0	.592	.148	.014	.098	.242	1.220	.232	.287	.360	.647

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Austin Martin	4.6	.772	.205	.010	.043	.517	.968	.256	.349	.345	.694
Byron Buxton	4.5	.558	.183	.028	.244	.325	1.364	.247	.311	.484	.795
Ryan Jeffers	4.4	.634	.192	.013	.153	.449	1.003	.257	.346	.433	.779
Royce Lewis	4.3	.609	.176	.004	.176	.337	1.141	.247	.311	.429	.741
Josh Bell	4.2	.636	.152	.007	.139	.354	.992	.247	.318	.402	.720
Luke Keaschall	4.1	.703	.183	.012	.066	.379	.761	.267	.348	.380	.728
Brooks Lee	4.0	.645	.145	.013	.118	.230	.775	.250	.299	.393	.691
Ryan Kreidler	3.8	.482	.136	.021	.077	.370	1.272	.210	.293	.329	.623
Kaelen Culpepper	3.7	.581	.136	.013	.090	.297	.906	.244	.313	.372	.686

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections