Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

August 16, 2026 · Andrew Painter vs Dean Kremer · 80°F

2.0% edge · Minnesota Twins

Philadelphia Phillies win

48.2%

Minnesota Twins win

51.8%

Fair line (home)

-107

Proj. total

10.09

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.05)Minnesota Twins (mean 5.03)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

10.09

Over

49.9%

Under

50.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	48.2%	-105	+107
Minnesota Twins	51.8%	-103	-107

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.9	.527	.130	.011	.363	.687	1.418	.248	.360	.547	.907
Bryson Stott	4.8	.830	.192	.041	.128	.385	.747	.273	.336	.423	.759
Bryce Harper	4.7	.686	.230	.014	.254	.562	.949	.290	.379	.540	.919
Luis Arraez	4.6	1.083	.200	.042	.051	.230	.199	.319	.357	.420	.777
Alec Bohm	4.5	.797	.209	.014	.141	.291	.643	.281	.334	.441	.776
Brandon Marsh	4.4	.733	.198	.025	.150	.350	1.142	.278	.339	.453	.793
J.T. Realmuto	4.2	.656	.176	.013	.133	.266	.948	.249	.306	.402	.708
Justin Crawford	4.1	.797	.171	.029	.061	.272	.825	.276	.327	.383	.710
Edmundo Sosa	4.0	.669	.171	.025	.130	.152	.850	.262	.300	.422	.723

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trevor Larnach	4.7	.767	.208	.013	.168	.529	.897	.280	.366	.458	.824
Byron Buxton	4.6	.638	.213	.034	.289	.355	1.079	.282	.346	.557	.903
Josh Bell	4.5	.727	.169	.014	.176	.433	.794	.272	.348	.454	.802
Kody Clemens	4.3	.595	.195	.039	.207	.316	.928	.259	.319	.483	.802
Royce Lewis	4.3	.649	.185	.004	.211	.349	.882	.271	.335	.484	.820
Brooks Lee	4.2	.715	.163	.022	.143	.287	.616	.272	.328	.439	.766
Luke Keaschall	4.0	.748	.191	.012	.076	.405	.573	.288	.370	.412	.782
Victor Caratini	3.9	.696	.129	.005	.118	.322	.671	.268	.343	.408	.751
Kaelen Culpepper	3.8	.636	.153	.013	.115	.314	.731	.265	.335	.417	.752

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections