Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

August 13, 2026 · Aaron Nola vs Taj Bradley · 82°F

0.7% edge · Minnesota Twins

Philadelphia Phillies win

49.3%

Minnesota Twins win

50.7%

Fair line (home)

-103

Proj. total

9.62

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.92)Minnesota Twins (mean 4.70)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.62

Over

55.8%

Under

44.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	49.3%	-104	+103
Minnesota Twins	50.7%	-104	-103

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.9	.495	.127	.010	.325	.752	1.512	.233	.358	.506	.864
Trea Turner	4.8	.855	.199	.019	.140	.327	1.001	.274	.328	.421	.749
Bryce Harper	4.7	.648	.212	.012	.229	.626	1.051	.274	.375	.503	.879
Luis Arraez	4.6	1.053	.204	.040	.051	.267	.223	.315	.360	.418	.777
Bryson Stott	4.5	.739	.167	.035	.111	.391	.799	.260	.329	.401	.730
Alec Bohm	4.3	.746	.191	.014	.124	.315	.721	.269	.328	.417	.745
Brandon Marsh	4.2	.667	.185	.024	.142	.379	1.219	.265	.334	.436	.770
J.T. Realmuto	4.1	.634	.170	.011	.123	.285	1.000	.247	.308	.395	.703
Justin Crawford	4.0	.766	.148	.030	.058	.282	.878	.270	.326	.374	.700

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trevor Larnach	4.6	.723	.197	.014	.165	.437	1.033	.266	.340	.439	.780
Byron Buxton	4.5	.589	.206	.025	.289	.308	1.206	.269	.328	.541	.869
Ryan Jeffers	4.4	.655	.199	.013	.190	.391	.904	.269	.346	.471	.817
Josh Bell	4.3	.662	.163	.014	.172	.362	.899	.260	.327	.441	.768
Royce Lewis	4.2	.627	.175	.004	.199	.297	1.002	.260	.317	.461	.778
Kody Clemens	4.1	.568	.157	.034	.197	.244	.967	.252	.304	.467	.771
Luke Keaschall	4.0	.716	.189	.015	.078	.345	.653	.281	.355	.408	.763
Brooks Lee	3.9	.644	.149	.022	.141	.227	.675	.265	.313	.437	.750
Kaelen Culpepper	3.7	.611	.145	.013	.110	.270	.806	.257	.320	.404	.724

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections