Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

August 18, 2026 · Tyler Mahle vs Zebby Matthews · 80°F

0.7% edge · Minnesota Twins

Atlanta Braves win

54.3%

Minnesota Twins win

45.7%

Fair line (home)

+119

Proj. total

9.41

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 5.05)Minnesota Twins (mean 4.36)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.41

Over

54.0%

Under

46.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	54.3%	-128	-119
Minnesota Twins	45.7%	+118	+119

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tyler Mahle RHP · Atlanta Braves	5.1	4.1	5.2	2.1	2.5
Zebby Matthews RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.4	4.6	6.0	1.6	3.0

Strikeout ladder

Tyler Mahle4+ 58%6+ 25%8+ 8%

Zebby Matthews4+ 65%6+ 33%8+ 12%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.8	.800	.169	.013	.228	.380	.911	.274	.337	.472	.809
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.7	.773	.179	.019	.217	.551	.943	.288	.378	.498	.876
Matt Olson	4.6	.653	.207	.007	.253	.455	1.073	.271	.347	.507	.855
Michael Harris II	4.5	.825	.206	.026	.206	.162	.844	.292	.321	.494	.815
Ozzie Albies	4.4	.760	.196	.010	.156	.268	.618	.274	.325	.441	.766
Mike Yastrzemski	4.3	.574	.172	.021	.166	.399	.987	.241	.318	.425	.743
Austin Riley	4.2	.624	.170	.014	.182	.284	1.129	.256	.312	.448	.760
Mauricio Dubón	4.1	.772	.193	.014	.091	.191	.522	.277	.314	.404	.718
Sean Murphy	4.0	.493	.140	.008	.153	.331	1.075	.223	.300	.396	.696

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.6	.821	.212	.015	.080	.451	.719	.274	.355	.392	.747
Trevor Larnach	4.5	.685	.187	.013	.141	.484	.958	.257	.341	.416	.756
Ryan Jeffers	4.4	.647	.188	.012	.176	.454	.848	.264	.351	.455	.805
Josh Bell	4.3	.651	.152	.011	.153	.410	.842	.251	.327	.415	.742
Kody Clemens	4.2	.554	.165	.033	.181	.292	.966	.242	.300	.442	.742
Royce Lewis	4.1	.570	.168	.003	.187	.324	.941	.248	.312	.445	.757
Brooks Lee	4.0	.636	.138	.020	.136	.257	.654	.251	.303	.409	.713
Alan Roden	3.9	.611	.162	.014	.091	.370	.740	.255	.337	.391	.727
Kaelen Culpepper	3.7	.576	.137	.012	.104	.301	.780	.244	.312	.382	.695

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections