Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

August 28, 2026 · Luis Castillo vs Dean Kremer · 82°F

2.1% edge · Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox win

47.1%

Minnesota Twins win

52.9%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

9.21

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.58)Minnesota Twins (mean 4.64)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.21

Over

42.4%

Under

47.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	47.1%	+118	+112
Minnesota Twins	52.9%	-128	-112

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Luis Castillo RHP · Chicago White Sox	4.9	3.8	5.3	1.6	2.6
Dean Kremer RHP · Minnesota Twins	4.9	4.6	5.0	1.8	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Luis Castillo4+ 54%6+ 18%8+ 3%

Dean Kremer4+ 69%6+ 31%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.8	.871	.197	.022	.099	.389	.773	.277	.354	.402	.756
Munetaka Murakami	4.7	.531	.129	.003	.311	.638	1.434	.241	.349	.505	.854
Miguel Vargas	4.6	.601	.206	.014	.199	.494	.834	.251	.338	.455	.793
Andrew Benintendi	4.5	.729	.166	.017	.154	.371	.857	.260	.324	.422	.747
Braden Montgomery	4.4	.666	.181	.035	.127	.347	1.125	.253	.320	.412	.732
Colson Montgomery	4.3	.507	.138	.008	.224	.332	1.286	.226	.296	.438	.734
Chase Meidroth	4.2	.726	.156	.003	.084	.413	.758	.261	.342	.374	.715
Tristan Peters	4.0	.638	.175	.024	.094	.299	.790	.250	.311	.386	.697
Drew Romo	3.9	.539	.131	.007	.126	.209	.945	.218	.267	.359	.626

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.6	.820	.212	.015	.108	.439	.695	.283	.365	.422	.787
Brooks Lee	4.5	.719	.163	.024	.169	.277	.709	.256	.307	.427	.734
Ryan Jeffers	4.4	.638	.187	.010	.190	.463	.795	.265	.354	.467	.820
Kody Clemens	4.3	.550	.164	.040	.218	.279	.953	.245	.302	.472	.774
Josh Bell	4.2	.638	.151	.009	.162	.390	.795	.256	.331	.430	.762
Royce Lewis	4.1	.580	.174	.008	.211	.322	.892	.261	.324	.481	.806
Trevor Larnach	4.0	.605	.161	.011	.140	.419	.803	.261	.344	.432	.776
Kaelen Culpepper	3.9	.618	.135	.017	.137	.259	.805	.256	.316	.420	.736
Walker Jenkins	3.7	.590	.161	.024	.100	.321	.751	.259	.330	.410	.741

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections