Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

August 29, 2026 · Erick Fedde vs Bailey Ober · 80°F

0.1% edge · Minnesota Twins

Chicago White Sox win

47.8%

Minnesota Twins win

52.2%

Fair line (home)

-109

Proj. total

9.32

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.66)Minnesota Twins (mean 4.66)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.32

Over

43.5%

Under

45.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	47.8%	+105	+109
Minnesota Twins	52.2%	-113	-109

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Erick Fedde RHP · Chicago White Sox	4.1	2.7	4.6	1.5	2.2
Bailey Ober RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.2	4.6	5.4	1.5	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Erick Fedde4+ 29%6+ 5%8+ 0%

Bailey Ober4+ 69%6+ 31%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.8	.878	.191	.024	.107	.321	.730	.277	.346	.406	.752
Munetaka Murakami	4.7	.544	.127	.003	.339	.562	1.378	.248	.343	.529	.871
Miguel Vargas	4.6	.604	.206	.012	.221	.429	.796	.255	.333	.472	.805
Andrew Benintendi	4.5	.720	.166	.015	.172	.312	.816	.260	.315	.432	.747
Braden Montgomery	4.4	.671	.179	.037	.135	.311	1.064	.255	.316	.420	.736
Colson Montgomery	4.3	.504	.141	.008	.237	.278	1.254	.227	.288	.448	.737
Chase Meidroth	4.1	.728	.158	.004	.099	.359	.733	.264	.336	.388	.724
Tristan Peters	4.0	.640	.176	.022	.107	.258	.755	.253	.307	.397	.704
Jake Rogers	3.9	.476	.136	.018	.148	.301	1.085	.217	.283	.389	.671

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.7	.838	.216	.013	.109	.483	.644	.287	.374	.426	.800
Brooks Lee	4.5	.734	.169	.025	.170	.316	.667	.262	.318	.435	.753
Kody Clemens	4.4	.583	.163	.044	.216	.315	.923	.247	.307	.468	.776
Josh Bell	4.3	.669	.143	.009	.182	.439	.762	.262	.342	.446	.788
Royce Lewis	4.2	.625	.181	.007	.199	.362	.851	.266	.333	.474	.807
Trevor Larnach	4.1	.635	.172	.009	.146	.453	.784	.266	.351	.439	.791
Kaelen Culpepper	4.0	.636	.149	.018	.132	.304	.791	.256	.322	.416	.738
Victor Caratini	3.9	.645	.118	.005	.115	.346	.666	.255	.336	.391	.727
Walker Jenkins	3.8	.591	.171	.025	.096	.358	.702	.261	.338	.411	.749

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections