Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

August 19, 2026 · AJ Smith-Shawver vs Taj Bradley · 80°F

3.6% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

54.8%

Minnesota Twins win

45.2%

Fair line (home)

+121

Proj. total

9.27

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 5.00)Minnesota Twins (mean 4.26)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.27

Over

53.5%

Under

46.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	54.8%	-109	-121
Minnesota Twins	45.2%	+101	+121

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
AJ Smith-Shawver RHP · Atlanta Braves	4.4	4.5	4.2	1.7	2.0
Taj Bradley RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.3	5.2	5.6	2.3	2.8

Strikeout ladder

AJ Smith-Shawver4+ 67%6+ 29%8+ 7%

Taj Bradley4+ 78%6+ 43%8+ 15%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.9	.726	.172	.017	.222	.677	1.081	.274	.382	.484	.866
Drake Baldwin	4.8	.781	.164	.011	.221	.483	.918	.277	.355	.476	.831
Matt Olson	4.7	.595	.198	.009	.263	.565	1.189	.262	.356	.509	.865
Michael Harris II	4.5	.793	.198	.028	.202	.202	.935	.282	.318	.481	.799
Dominic Smith	4.4	.725	.154	.016	.129	.363	.893	.254	.321	.395	.717
Ozzie Albies	4.3	.689	.177	.011	.153	.326	.707	.260	.322	.426	.748
Mike Yastrzemski	4.2	.527	.163	.021	.157	.474	1.041	.233	.325	.415	.740
Austin Riley	4.1	.594	.155	.010	.167	.335	1.213	.248	.318	.429	.747
Jim Jarvis	4.0	.670	.167	.025	.052	.285	.757	.249	.309	.351	.660

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.6	.782	.187	.013	.092	.475	.807	.268	.358	.390	.748
Byron Buxton	4.5	.556	.178	.025	.265	.351	1.256	.252	.320	.504	.824
Josh Bell	4.3	.628	.149	.011	.162	.420	.948	.243	.322	.411	.733
Kody Clemens	4.3	.530	.151	.036	.203	.282	1.073	.234	.291	.446	.737
Royce Lewis	4.1	.564	.170	.008	.187	.347	1.032	.246	.314	.445	.759
Trevor Larnach	4.0	.579	.153	.009	.139	.423	.951	.246	.329	.410	.739
Brooks Lee	3.9	.595	.138	.021	.140	.254	.735	.245	.299	.409	.708
Victor Caratini	3.8	.617	.115	.005	.107	.299	.807	.245	.319	.375	.694
Kaelen Culpepper	3.7	.551	.130	.017	.116	.261	.901	.240	.304	.392	.696

Data notes: away starter AJ Smith-Shawver: only 13 BF vs LHB this season · away starter AJ Smith-Shawver: only 6 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections