Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

August 31, 2026 · Jackson Jobe vs Taj Bradley · 87°F

0.8% edge · Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers win

47.3%

Minnesota Twins win

52.7%

Fair line (home)

-111

Proj. total

9.44

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 4.71)Minnesota Twins (mean 4.73)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.44

Over

44.0%

Under

45.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	47.3%	+111	+111
Minnesota Twins	52.7%	-120	-111

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jackson Jobe RHP · Detroit Tigers	4.4	3.2	4.8	1.8	2.4
Taj Bradley RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.4	5.1	5.4	2.3	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Jackson Jobe4+ 39%6+ 9%8+ 1%

Taj Bradley4+ 77%6+ 40%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gleyber Torres	4.9	.792	.178	.005	.148	.611	.889	.265	.362	.414	.776
Colt Keith	4.8	.777	.193	.037	.159	.427	.941	.271	.340	.444	.784
Kevin McGonigle	4.6	.768	.201	.029	.141	.600	.699	.284	.380	.454	.835
Dillon Dingler	4.5	.656	.191	.018	.206	.301	1.076	.257	.317	.460	.777
Brett Callahan	4.4	.678	.148	.035	.118	.278	1.140	.239	.295	.379	.674
Zach McKinstry	4.3	.644	.162	.051	.090	.423	.857	.246	.326	.384	.710
Spencer Torkelson	4.2	.490	.169	.004	.183	.466	1.204	.229	.320	.425	.745
Max Clark	4.1	.640	.142	.038	.109	.389	.844	.253	.329	.401	.730
Hao-Yu Lee	4.0	.624	.162	.024	.121	.280	.895	.254	.312	.410	.722

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.7	.817	.209	.014	.102	.483	.658	.280	.369	.413	.783
Brooks Lee	4.5	.724	.160	.025	.162	.320	.663	.256	.313	.423	.736
Kody Clemens	4.4	.579	.171	.044	.215	.314	.917	.248	.310	.471	.780
Ryan Jeffers	4.3	.621	.186	.009	.179	.491	.743	.265	.362	.463	.825
Josh Bell	4.2	.645	.160	.008	.159	.421	.749	.259	.340	.432	.772
Trevor Larnach	4.1	.640	.172	.011	.144	.463	.776	.268	.355	.441	.796
Royce Lewis	4.0	.591	.174	.008	.189	.343	.804	.264	.332	.473	.805
Kaelen Culpepper	3.9	.623	.143	.017	.123	.290	.766	.255	.321	.409	.729
Walker Jenkins	3.8	.620	.170	.027	.091	.349	.704	.269	.343	.416	.759

Data notes: away starter Jackson Jobe: only 52 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Jackson Jobe: only 28 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections