Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

August 30, 2026 · Jordan Hicks vs Zebby Matthews · 89°F

0.4% edge · Minnesota Twins

Chicago White Sox win

47.6%

Minnesota Twins win

52.4%

Fair line (home)

-110

Proj. total

9.14

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.56)Minnesota Twins (mean 4.57)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.14

Over

52.2%

Under

47.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	47.6%	+104	+110
Minnesota Twins	52.4%	-113	-110

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jordan Hicks RHP · Chicago White Sox	2.1	2.0	2.1	1.0	0.9
Zebby Matthews RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.6	5.3	5.7	1.6	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Jordan Hicks4+ 11%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Zebby Matthews4+ 79%6+ 43%8+ 15%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.8	.863	.206	.022	.111	.335	.766	.280	.350	.415	.766
Munetaka Murakami	4.7	.529	.129	.003	.323	.584	1.389	.243	.343	.516	.859
Miguel Vargas	4.5	.602	.211	.013	.215	.439	.806	.256	.335	.474	.809
Andrew Benintendi	4.5	.732	.169	.018	.161	.324	.845	.263	.320	.431	.750
Braden Montgomery	4.3	.681	.183	.037	.124	.312	1.107	.257	.318	.415	.733
Colson Montgomery	4.2	.525	.141	.008	.225	.290	1.262	.231	.294	.446	.740
Tristan Peters	4.1	.666	.182	.025	.102	.281	.789	.256	.313	.398	.711
Brenton Doyle	4.0	.612	.146	.009	.131	.228	1.091	.239	.285	.386	.671
Drew Romo	3.9	.562	.133	.007	.132	.189	.925	.228	.272	.376	.648

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.7	.798	.203	.013	.091	.528	.752	.275	.374	.400	.774
Brooks Lee	4.5	.703	.159	.023	.151	.342	.775	.249	.312	.407	.719
Kody Clemens	4.4	.550	.155	.039	.207	.342	1.049	.236	.303	.448	.751
Ryan Jeffers	4.3	.612	.177	.009	.165	.540	.854	.260	.366	.447	.813
Josh Bell	4.2	.618	.148	.008	.153	.445	.857	.248	.334	.415	.749
Trevor Larnach	4.1	.618	.166	.009	.139	.492	.878	.260	.353	.427	.781
Royce Lewis	4.0	.554	.166	.008	.184	.368	.932	.253	.327	.456	.783
Kaelen Culpepper	3.9	.606	.136	.017	.129	.313	.856	.253	.325	.412	.736
Walker Jenkins	3.8	.581	.161	.025	.087	.371	.800	.254	.335	.395	.730

Data notes: away starter Jordan Hicks: only 72 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 89F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections