Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

September 1, 2026 · Troy Melton vs Andrew Morris · 84°F

2.1% edge · Minnesota Twins

Detroit Tigers win

46.9%

Minnesota Twins win

53.0%

Fair line (home)

-113

Proj. total

8.96

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 4.45)Minnesota Twins (mean 4.51)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.96

Over

50.4%

Under

49.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	46.9%	-100	+113
Minnesota Twins	53.0%	-108	-113

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Troy Melton RHP · Detroit Tigers	5.4	4.2	5.6	1.8	2.7
Andrew Morris RHP · Minnesota Twins	2.2	1.8	2.3	0.6	0.9

Strikeout ladder

Troy Melton4+ 62%6+ 24%8+ 5%

Andrew Morris4+ 9%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.8	.789	.206	.031	.138	.575	.670	.277	.368	.440	.808
Gleyber Torres	4.7	.767	.181	.004	.119	.553	.799	.260	.351	.392	.744
Dillon Dingler	4.6	.683	.202	.018	.180	.290	1.030	.256	.315	.440	.755
Riley Greene	4.5	.668	.199	.014	.186	.451	1.182	.267	.346	.463	.809
Hao-Yu Lee	4.4	.695	.181	.027	.115	.293	.935	.252	.309	.395	.704
Spencer Torkelson	4.3	.508	.178	.005	.167	.450	1.179	.227	.316	.409	.725
Max Clark	4.2	.671	.145	.039	.097	.366	.811	.254	.326	.390	.717
Javier Báez	4.0	.655	.162	.017	.104	.157	.874	.244	.283	.376	.659
John Peck	3.9	.658	.165	.020	.088	.171	.983	.251	.290	.377	.667

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.6	.826	.210	.013	.093	.447	.685	.280	.363	.406	.768
Brooks Lee	4.5	.715	.170	.025	.154	.282	.695	.254	.305	.417	.722
Kody Clemens	4.4	.575	.164	.040	.206	.285	.936	.243	.298	.455	.753
Ryan Jeffers	4.3	.638	.188	.012	.163	.446	.761	.266	.353	.453	.806
Josh Bell	4.2	.649	.151	.011	.155	.384	.767	.258	.331	.428	.759
Trevor Larnach	4.1	.638	.171	.010	.142	.412	.796	.265	.344	.436	.780
Royce Lewis	4.0	.577	.162	.006	.183	.312	.867	.257	.320	.457	.777
Kaelen Culpepper	3.8	.618	.140	.018	.120	.260	.795	.254	.314	.406	.720
Walker Jenkins	3.7	.605	.172	.029	.093	.316	.723	.267	.336	.418	.753

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections