Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

September 11, 2026 · Parker Messick vs Taj Bradley · 79°F

1.3% edge · Minnesota Twins

Cleveland Guardians win

50.7%

Minnesota Twins win

49.3%

Fair line (home)

+103

Proj. total

8.73

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.52)Minnesota Twins (mean 4.21)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.73

Over

55.8%

Under

44.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cleveland Guardians	50.7%	-113	-103
Minnesota Twins	49.3%	+104	+103

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Parker Messick LHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.4	4.6	5.6	1.7	2.4
Taj Bradley RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.4	4.8	5.4	2.2	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Parker Messick4+ 69%6+ 32%8+ 9%

Taj Bradley4+ 71%6+ 34%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.8	.920	.206	.018	.064	.543	.517	.283	.367	.384	.751
Chase DeLauter	4.7	.820	.251	.030	.149	.483	.781	.295	.369	.474	.843
José Ramírez	4.6	.703	.221	.015	.178	.488	.631	.271	.352	.461	.813
Jo Adell	4.5	.607	.179	.015	.205	.293	1.195	.242	.302	.439	.742
Travis Bazzana	4.4	.620	.192	.034	.094	.505	1.071	.243	.338	.384	.722
Nathaniel Lowe	4.3	.626	.173	.008	.130	.503	1.075	.248	.339	.401	.740
Angel Martínez	4.2	.626	.185	.025	.112	.215	.970	.241	.287	.385	.673
Austin Hedges	4.1	.572	.121	.006	.097	.357	.980	.216	.290	.331	.621
Brayan Rocchio	4.0	.621	.163	.026	.088	.289	.703	.248	.312	.380	.692

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.6	.842	.211	.013	.085	.432	.776	.283	.366	.404	.770
Kaelen Culpepper	4.5	.732	.176	.022	.130	.287	.999	.256	.313	.402	.715
Ryan Jeffers	4.4	.649	.191	.017	.154	.443	.885	.261	.348	.438	.786
Josh Bell	4.3	.677	.159	.006	.139	.365	.901	.253	.324	.404	.728
Kody Clemens	4.2	.547	.158	.040	.179	.275	1.007	.239	.297	.439	.736
Royce Lewis	4.1	.602	.172	.009	.152	.310	.977	.249	.311	.422	.733
Brooks Lee	4.0	.652	.143	.015	.121	.214	.708	.251	.297	.395	.692
Austin Martin	3.8	.636	.169	.008	.034	.426	.742	.252	.345	.337	.682
Walker Jenkins	3.7	.582	.162	.025	.092	.347	.837	.257	.333	.403	.736

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections