Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

September 13, 2026 · Tanner Bibee vs Joe Ryan · 66°F

1.9% edge · Minnesota Twins

Cleveland Guardians win

44.4%

Minnesota Twins win

55.6%

Fair line (home)

-125

Proj. total

8.2

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.93)Minnesota Twins (mean 4.27)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.2

Over

51.3%

Under

48.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cleveland Guardians	44.4%	+112	+125
Minnesota Twins	55.6%	-121	-125

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tanner Bibee RHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.3	4.5	5.5	1.8	2.5
Joe Ryan RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.3	5.1	5.1	1.3	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Tanner Bibee4+ 68%6+ 30%8+ 8%

Joe Ryan4+ 77%6+ 41%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.7	.891	.193	.022	.058	.416	.533	.272	.341	.368	.710
Chase DeLauter	4.6	.776	.235	.027	.130	.361	.824	.276	.336	.437	.773
Travis Bazzana	4.5	.629	.199	.032	.097	.410	1.139	.237	.316	.374	.691
Jo Adell	4.4	.588	.174	.013	.189	.225	1.198	.235	.289	.422	.711
Nathaniel Lowe	4.3	.636	.175	.008	.124	.390	1.135	.244	.317	.389	.706
Angel Martínez	4.2	.624	.180	.024	.111	.171	.983	.238	.280	.380	.659
Angel Genao	4.1	.716	.183	.015	.069	.244	.843	.259	.309	.369	.679
Patrick Bailey	4.0	.579	.136	.021	.081	.256	1.127	.222	.278	.337	.615
Brayan Rocchio	3.8	.604	.168	.023	.079	.223	.711	.246	.303	.373	.676

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.6	.836	.204	.014	.086	.410	.722	.280	.361	.400	.761
Brooks Lee	4.5	.736	.167	.026	.143	.261	.730	.256	.305	.411	.716
Kody Clemens	4.4	.582	.163	.046	.182	.289	.986	.242	.301	.441	.743
Ryan Jeffers	4.3	.617	.195	.016	.164	.431	.785	.265	.353	.457	.810
Trevor Larnach	4.2	.650	.174	.010	.138	.405	.868	.262	.339	.425	.764
Royce Lewis	4.0	.609	.182	.007	.161	.307	.906	.258	.319	.440	.759
Emmanuel Rodriguez	3.9	.507	.127	.023	.125	.487	1.268	.229	.334	.390	.724
Walker Jenkins	3.8	.604	.172	.022	.094	.348	.812	.259	.334	.404	.739
Ryan Kreidler	3.7	.503	.126	.024	.085	.321	1.056	.220	.295	.347	.643

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections