Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

September 12, 2026 · Daniel Espino vs Connor Prielipp · 68°F

1.1% edge · Minnesota Twins

Cleveland Guardians win

48.9%

Minnesota Twins win

51.1%

Fair line (home)

-104

Proj. total

7.98

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.08)Minnesota Twins (mean 3.90)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.98

Over

41.3%

Under

51.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cleveland Guardians	48.9%	-104	+104
Minnesota Twins	51.1%	-104	-104

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Daniel Espino RHP · Cleveland Guardians	2.1	2.2	1.9	1.0	0.7
Connor Prielipp LHP · Minnesota Twins	5.1	4.3	5.0	1.9	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Daniel Espino4+ 16%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Connor Prielipp4+ 65%6+ 27%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.8	.924	.201	.021	.048	.524	.490	.282	.365	.373	.738
José Ramírez	4.7	.738	.231	.011	.136	.435	.630	.265	.340	.422	.762
Chase DeLauter	4.6	.791	.239	.029	.117	.455	.744	.287	.361	.445	.806
Jo Adell	4.5	.624	.179	.013	.175	.282	1.160	.241	.303	.419	.722
Angel Martínez	4.4	.665	.210	.017	.091	.208	.982	.240	.287	.367	.653
David Fry	4.2	.513	.163	.008	.113	.410	1.166	.211	.298	.349	.647
Travis Bazzana	4.1	.590	.180	.030	.074	.465	.972	.242	.337	.369	.706
Austin Hedges	4.0	.574	.123	.006	.081	.331	.944	.214	.287	.318	.605
Brayan Rocchio	3.9	.616	.175	.018	.069	.256	.679	.245	.308	.361	.670

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.6	.781	.195	.012	.084	.492	.811	.268	.364	.386	.750
Brooks Lee	4.5	.703	.159	.021	.123	.301	.830	.243	.300	.380	.680
Kody Clemens	4.4	.547	.152	.037	.167	.355	1.095	.228	.299	.412	.711
Josh Bell	4.3	.630	.148	.010	.125	.447	.911	.242	.330	.387	.716
Royce Lewis	4.2	.580	.170	.008	.142	.359	1.042	.238	.308	.399	.708
Kaelen Culpepper	4.1	.633	.143	.021	.109	.303	.929	.245	.313	.384	.696
Victor Caratini	3.9	.626	.116	.005	.087	.365	.828	.240	.329	.351	.680
Austin Martin	3.8	.600	.162	.007	.035	.483	.767	.244	.350	.329	.679
Emmanuel Rodriguez	3.7	.435	.110	.021	.097	.534	1.250	.211	.334	.353	.687

Data notes: away starter Daniel Espino: only 21 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Daniel Espino: only 22 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections