New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

September 14, 2026 · Will Warren vs Dean Kremer · 60°F

0.8% edge · New York Yankees

New York Yankees win

54.5%

Minnesota Twins win

45.5%

Fair line (home)

+120

Proj. total

8.42

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.57)Minnesota Twins (mean 3.85)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.42

Over

45.4%

Under

46.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	54.5%	-121	-120
Minnesota Twins	45.5%	+112	+120

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Will Warren RHP · New York Yankees	4.8	4.4	4.6	1.9	2.0
Dean Kremer RHP · Minnesota Twins	4.9	4.9	4.8	2.0	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Will Warren4+ 66%6+ 28%8+ 7%

Dean Kremer4+ 74%6+ 37%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ben Rice	4.8	.624	.180	.028	.216	.496	1.068	.245	.331	.452	.783
Cody Bellinger	4.7	.773	.193	.031	.152	.412	.714	.269	.336	.435	.770
Aaron Judge	4.6	.605	.166	.008	.264	.778	1.160	.276	.404	.533	.937
Luis García Jr.	4.5	.741	.192	.029	.188	.254	.732	.272	.316	.465	.781
Spencer Jones	4.4	.570	.195	.013	.169	.356	1.532	.237	.303	.418	.721
George Lombard Jr.	4.3	.593	.187	.021	.069	.405	1.116	.227	.308	.341	.649
Ryan McMahon	4.2	.526	.150	.005	.123	.452	1.247	.217	.306	.360	.666
Austin Wells	4.1	.498	.150	.008	.139	.377	1.015	.218	.298	.378	.676
José Caballero	3.9	.578	.152	.006	.073	.325	.962	.228	.303	.336	.639

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.6	.794	.197	.012	.081	.439	.715	.268	.353	.383	.736
Brooks Lee	4.5	.715	.159	.027	.133	.277	.760	.249	.300	.396	.696
Kody Clemens	4.3	.563	.157	.041	.171	.292	1.004	.232	.291	.420	.711
Ryan Jeffers	4.2	.595	.179	.016	.138	.449	.823	.249	.340	.416	.755
Josh Bell	4.1	.621	.151	.010	.121	.397	.827	.243	.322	.388	.710
Emmanuel Rodriguez	4.0	.496	.125	.023	.097	.539	1.305	.214	.327	.348	.675
Victor Caratini	3.9	.620	.118	.004	.096	.324	.770	.238	.316	.355	.671
Ryan Kreidler	3.8	.489	.127	.025	.074	.340	1.101	.208	.286	.324	.610
Walker Jenkins	3.7	.545	.163	.022	.085	.347	.778	.246	.325	.386	.711

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections