New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

September 16, 2026 · Carlos Rodón vs Zebby Matthews · 70°F

3.0% edge · Minnesota Twins

New York Yankees win

56.0%

Minnesota Twins win

44.0%

Fair line (home)

+127

Proj. total

8.73

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.81)Minnesota Twins (mean 3.92)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.73

Over

48.2%

Under

44.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	56.0%	-151	-127
Minnesota Twins	44.0%	+139	+127

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Carlos Rodón LHP · New York Yankees	4.7	5.2	4.1	2.1	2.0
Zebby Matthews RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.4	5.4	5.6	1.8	2.8

Strikeout ladder

Carlos Rodón4+ 78%6+ 42%8+ 14%

Zebby Matthews4+ 80%6+ 46%8+ 16%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ben Rice	4.8	.640	.173	.025	.271	.462	1.062	.258	.336	.499	.836
Cody Bellinger	4.7	.782	.197	.030	.176	.361	.708	.275	.334	.457	.790
Aaron Judge	4.6	.598	.162	.007	.312	.700	1.179	.280	.395	.569	.964
Luis García Jr.	4.5	.756	.207	.026	.219	.217	.714	.283	.320	.498	.818
Spencer Jones	4.4	.576	.186	.012	.200	.314	1.502	.241	.300	.442	.742
George Lombard Jr.	4.3	.592	.182	.020	.091	.374	1.126	.230	.304	.358	.662
Ryan McMahon	4.2	.540	.147	.004	.146	.404	1.226	.224	.304	.382	.686
Austin Wells	4.0	.509	.153	.007	.160	.340	1.020	.226	.297	.401	.699
Anthony Volpe	3.9	.545	.162	.025	.119	.287	.895	.235	.296	.392	.688

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.6	.743	.184	.011	.099	.478	.795	.259	.353	.385	.739
Austin Martin	4.5	.679	.182	.013	.055	.540	.882	.240	.343	.337	.679
Ryan Jeffers	4.4	.574	.179	.014	.172	.490	.902	.247	.345	.438	.783
Josh Bell	4.3	.602	.149	.006	.149	.403	.927	.238	.317	.397	.714
Kody Clemens	4.2	.488	.141	.034	.189	.312	1.017	.224	.290	.427	.717
Royce Lewis	4.0	.530	.155	.008	.169	.334	.995	.234	.301	.417	.718
Emmanuel Rodriguez	3.9	.451	.117	.029	.134	.527	1.321	.217	.331	.389	.720
Ryan Kreidler	3.8	.447	.121	.022	.089	.371	1.154	.199	.285	.325	.610
Ben Ross	3.7	.419	.140	.014	.094	.299	1.116	.198	.270	.332	.602

Data notes: away starter Carlos Rodón: only 72 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections