New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

September 15, 2026 · Max Fried vs Bailey Ober · 68°F

4.1% edge · Minnesota Twins

New York Yankees win

56.7%

Minnesota Twins win

43.3%

Fair line (home)

+131

Proj. total

8.16

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.50)Minnesota Twins (mean 3.66)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.16

Over

50.7%

Under

49.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	56.7%	-163	-131
Minnesota Twins	43.3%	+150	+131

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Max Fried LHP · New York Yankees	4.9	4.5	4.6	1.5	1.8
Bailey Ober RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.3	4.6	5.5	1.3	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Max Fried4+ 67%6+ 29%8+ 8%

Bailey Ober4+ 70%6+ 32%8+ 9%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ben Rice	4.7	.606	.178	.024	.300	.435	1.010	.261	.336	.525	.861
Cody Bellinger	4.6	.757	.193	.025	.209	.346	.664	.279	.336	.484	.820
Heliot Ramos	4.5	.700	.169	.019	.204	.286	1.085	.261	.317	.457	.774
Luis García Jr.	4.4	.720	.191	.026	.238	.201	.691	.280	.316	.509	.824
Spencer Jones	4.3	.550	.171	.013	.222	.291	1.466	.240	.296	.456	.752
George Lombard Jr.	4.2	.572	.183	.020	.103	.334	1.092	.230	.298	.369	.667
Anthony Volpe	4.1	.546	.172	.026	.139	.284	.902	.234	.292	.404	.696
Ali Sánchez	4.0	.610	.126	.006	.098	.209	.923	.225	.272	.341	.613
José Caballero	3.9	.565	.144	.007	.099	.278	.902	.232	.300	.361	.661

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.5	.780	.205	.010	.075	.414	.733	.266	.348	.377	.726
Kaelen Culpepper	4.4	.695	.167	.018	.113	.283	.960	.243	.302	.375	.677
Josh Bell	4.3	.649	.155	.006	.128	.362	.885	.239	.309	.380	.689
Kody Clemens	4.2	.534	.146	.043	.162	.281	.997	.227	.286	.411	.696
Royce Lewis	4.1	.571	.171	.008	.141	.294	.962	.235	.293	.395	.689
Brooks Lee	4.0	.631	.145	.015	.113	.212	.687	.240	.286	.376	.662
Victor Caratini	3.9	.633	.115	.003	.085	.277	.773	.238	.311	.344	.655
Emmanuel Rodriguez	3.8	.476	.113	.029	.103	.452	1.243	.220	.321	.366	.687
Austin Martin	3.7	.568	.156	.010	.033	.389	.695	.238	.330	.324	.654

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections