Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins — Prediction & Odds

September 25, 2026 · Jacob deGrom vs Joe Ryan · 67°F

2.1% edge · Minnesota Twins

Texas Rangers win

49.8%

Minnesota Twins win

50.2%

Fair line (home)

-101

Proj. total

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Texas Rangers (mean 4.09)Minnesota Twins (mean 3.91)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

Over

48.8%

Under

38.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Texas Rangers	49.8%	-113	+101
Minnesota Twins	50.2%	+104	-101

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jacob deGrom RHP · Texas Rangers	5.1	5.9	4.5	1.4	1.9
Joe Ryan RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.4	5.7	5.0	1.4	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Jacob deGrom4+ 86%6+ 54%8+ 23%

Joe Ryan4+ 84%6+ 52%8+ 21%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brandon Nimmo	4.7	.726	.190	.019	.151	.359	1.156	.253	.320	.412	.731
Josh Jung	4.6	.748	.215	.012	.157	.238	1.097	.262	.309	.427	.736
Corey Seager	4.5	.636	.174	.004	.223	.400	1.030	.256	.329	.465	.794
Wyatt Langford	4.4	.586	.177	.018	.172	.439	1.099	.244	.327	.430	.757
Ezequiel Duran	4.3	.660	.189	.023	.114	.228	1.119	.245	.294	.388	.682
Nicky Lopez	4.2	.752	.127	.023	.020	.262	.774	.238	.296	.299	.595
Jake Burger	4.1	.537	.148	.003	.188	.246	1.154	.232	.288	.422	.710
Evan Carter	4.0	.520	.133	.028	.102	.349	1.051	.221	.301	.360	.661
Danny Jansen	3.8	.440	.134	.009	.138	.332	1.002	.210	.292	.374	.666

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.5	.764	.198	.015	.099	.379	.850	.266	.341	.396	.737
Brooks Lee	4.4	.711	.154	.025	.145	.222	.873	.249	.292	.403	.695
Kody Clemens	4.3	.526	.150	.043	.190	.259	1.144	.228	.281	.430	.711
Josh Bell	4.2	.621	.143	.010	.151	.337	.964	.242	.309	.404	.712
Ryan Jeffers	4.1	.558	.173	.016	.149	.384	.931	.247	.328	.426	.754
Walker Jenkins	4.0	.598	.170	.024	.114	.317	.944	.250	.316	.405	.721
Royce Lewis	3.9	.533	.157	.007	.156	.254	1.040	.238	.292	.417	.708
Emmanuel Rodriguez	3.7	.447	.117	.025	.120	.420	1.309	.216	.310	.376	.687
Ryan Kreidler	3.6	.439	.125	.020	.098	.293	1.137	.207	.278	.347	.625

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections