Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

July 7, 2026 · Seth Lugo vs Cionel Pérez · 68°F

5.6% edge · New York Mets

Kansas City Royals win

36.9%

New York Mets win

63.1%

Fair line (home)

-171

Proj. total

8.83

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 3.87)New York Mets (mean 4.96)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.83

Over

46.1%

Under

53.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	36.9%	+131	+171
New York Mets	63.1%	-142	-171

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.8	.590	.183	.018	.122	.537	1.308	.218	.311	.358	.669
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	.709	.227	.029	.150	.447	.852	.269	.346	.447	.793
Lane Thomas	4.5	.595	.176	.013	.101	.488	1.139	.222	.316	.349	.666
Salvador Perez	4.4	.647	.157	.004	.153	.270	.899	.235	.293	.387	.681
Jac Caglianone	4.3	.595	.169	.014	.152	.403	1.068	.241	.322	.411	.732
Nick Loftin	4.2	.595	.162	.028	.070	.490	.672	.234	.333	.351	.684
Isaac Collins	4.1	.529	.157	.018	.057	.550	.988	.218	.336	.322	.658
Michael Massey	4.0	.632	.175	.009	.093	.237	.737	.244	.295	.370	.665
Tyler Tolbert	3.9	.565	.141	.013	.032	.297	1.050	.213	.283	.287	.570

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.7	.888	.197	.036	.047	.463	1.019	.279	.356	.377	.733
Juan Soto	4.6	.664	.161	.018	.264	.870	.688	.301	.437	.569	1.005
Bo Bichette	4.5	.899	.218	.014	.126	.302	.657	.304	.355	.454	.810
Francisco Lindor	4.3	.700	.175	.018	.169	.405	.724	.274	.354	.460	.814
Carson Benge	4.3	.738	.178	.022	.116	.357	.819	.274	.342	.421	.763
Jorge Polanco	4.2	.617	.159	.003	.161	.432	.811	.255	.338	.430	.769
Jared Young	4.0	.613	.167	.016	.147	.381	.897	.262	.342	.440	.782
Brett Baty	3.9	.651	.139	.015	.124	.349	.904	.261	.331	.413	.744
Luis Torrens	3.8	.597	.173	.008	.090	.245	.779	.247	.306	.378	.684

Data notes: home starter Cionel Pérez: only 67 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections