Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

July 9, 2026 · Michael Wacha vs Sean Manaea · 74°F

5.5% edge · New York Mets

Kansas City Royals win

38.0%

New York Mets win

62.0%

Fair line (home)

-163

Proj. total

8.93

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 3.98)New York Mets (mean 4.95)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.93

Over

40.2%

Under

49.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	38.0%	+125	+163
New York Mets	62.0%	-136	-163

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lane Thomas	4.8	.633	.187	.015	.129	.475	1.221	.228	.316	.371	.687
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.7	.718	.226	.030	.186	.405	.850	.276	.346	.478	.824
Salvador Perez	4.5	.649	.157	.004	.196	.246	.963	.239	.292	.417	.709
Starling Marte	4.4	.765	.171	.013	.098	.309	1.045	.259	.324	.380	.705
Nick Loftin	4.3	.633	.174	.028	.079	.463	.699	.240	.333	.363	.696
Jac Caglianone	4.2	.590	.166	.016	.172	.360	1.066	.248	.322	.436	.758
Isaac Collins	4.1	.536	.149	.015	.069	.511	1.015	.218	.327	.327	.654
Tyler Tolbert	4.0	.589	.152	.013	.045	.279	1.078	.218	.282	.303	.585
Luke Maile	3.9	.491	.128	.009	.069	.389	1.169	.203	.294	.305	.599

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.7	.876	.199	.037	.055	.437	.979	.279	.351	.383	.734
Juan Soto	4.5	.681	.160	.020	.272	.813	.665	.305	.432	.578	1.010
Bo Bichette	4.5	.903	.214	.016	.132	.282	.634	.305	.353	.460	.813
Carson Benge	4.3	.733	.186	.021	.128	.339	.824	.271	.335	.426	.761
Francisco Alvarez	4.2	.614	.152	.009	.214	.395	.908	.260	.337	.474	.811
Jared Young	4.1	.625	.172	.015	.158	.387	.899	.263	.341	.446	.787
Mark Vientos	4.0	.617	.172	.010	.198	.267	.901	.268	.323	.480	.803
Brett Baty	3.9	.658	.139	.017	.129	.328	.891	.266	.332	.424	.755
Luis Torrens	3.8	.610	.167	.008	.099	.238	.737	.252	.307	.389	.697

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections