Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

July 8, 2026 · Steven Cruz vs Christian Scott · 78°F

0.4% edge · New York Mets

Kansas City Royals win

37.7%

New York Mets win

62.3%

Fair line (home)

-165

Proj. total

9.08

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 4.02)New York Mets (mean 5.05)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.08

Over

40.7%

Under

49.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	37.7%	+157	+165
New York Mets	62.3%	-171	-165

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.592	.179	.017	.157	.454	1.339	.223	.302	.384	.687
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	.715	.234	.030	.188	.383	.861	.279	.346	.484	.830
Jac Caglianone	4.5	.642	.178	.017	.190	.370	1.143	.252	.324	.444	.768
Lane Thomas	4.4	.581	.171	.012	.131	.417	1.137	.228	.312	.378	.689
Salvador Perez	4.3	.603	.151	.004	.187	.218	.906	.236	.288	.416	.705
Michael Massey	4.2	.649	.183	.009	.128	.208	.802	.245	.288	.393	.681
Nick Loftin	4.1	.596	.157	.023	.083	.409	.669	.238	.325	.363	.688
Isaac Collins	4.0	.526	.145	.018	.070	.486	.975	.222	.330	.337	.667
Tyler Tolbert	3.9	.569	.148	.012	.042	.257	1.040	.218	.280	.302	.582

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.7	.837	.190	.035	.047	.540	1.093	.267	.356	.364	.720
Juan Soto	4.6	.643	.151	.016	.244	.977	.709	.291	.445	.544	.989
Bo Bichette	4.5	.872	.202	.013	.121	.363	.711	.293	.354	.436	.791
Francisco Lindor	4.4	.691	.167	.017	.160	.456	.785	.268	.358	.444	.802
Carson Benge	4.3	.701	.175	.022	.115	.410	.888	.265	.344	.412	.756
Jorge Polanco	4.2	.608	.151	.004	.157	.481	.835	.251	.345	.422	.767
Jared Young	4.1	.596	.168	.015	.149	.439	.947	.259	.350	.439	.789
Brett Baty	4.0	.632	.141	.016	.119	.385	.964	.256	.334	.406	.740
Francisco Alvarez	3.8	.524	.134	.009	.171	.421	.880	.248	.341	.445	.786

Data notes: away starter Steven Cruz: only 47 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections