Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

July 10, 2026 · Sonny Gray vs Nolan McLean · 85°F

0.3% edge · Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox win

43.1%

New York Mets win

56.9%

Fair line (home)

-132

Proj. total

8.4

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 3.97)New York Mets (mean 4.43)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.4

Over

46.5%

Under

53.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	43.1%	+129	+132
New York Mets	56.9%	-140	-132

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Anthony Seigler	4.8	.627	.196	.020	.068	.596	1.104	.221	.327	.328	.655
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.7	.729	.214	.031	.124	.245	1.048	.253	.304	.402	.707
Wilyer Abreu	4.5	.613	.206	.019	.151	.508	1.123	.246	.335	.420	.755
Romy Gonzalez	4.5	.711	.187	.038	.112	.272	1.188	.255	.309	.400	.710
Masataka Yoshida	4.3	.760	.196	.017	.094	.352	.633	.274	.347	.405	.752
Caleb Durbin	4.2	.641	.201	.017	.091	.338	.557	.252	.334	.386	.720
Jarren Duran	4.1	.526	.180	.052	.107	.354	1.147	.233	.311	.396	.707
Connor Wong	4.0	.593	.167	.007	.080	.320	1.065	.233	.307	.349	.656
Tsung-Che Cheng	3.9	.509	.127	.028	.045	.374	1.103	.203	.285	.293	.578

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.6	.824	.195	.026	.085	.399	1.147	.271	.338	.391	.729
Juan Soto	4.5	.648	.154	.018	.262	.781	.786	.293	.418	.556	.975
Francisco Lindor	4.4	.707	.159	.026	.166	.351	.860	.267	.336	.445	.782
Carson Benge	4.3	.729	.161	.026	.118	.325	.980	.264	.326	.409	.735
Jorge Polanco	4.2	.611	.153	.005	.169	.388	.920	.250	.325	.428	.752
Jared Young	4.1	.593	.161	.013	.155	.333	1.017	.250	.320	.426	.747
Francisco Alvarez	4.0	.562	.144	.008	.185	.319	1.053	.249	.316	.447	.763
Brett Baty	3.8	.609	.129	.011	.108	.310	1.045	.244	.310	.380	.690
Zack Short	3.7	.443	.110	.005	.070	.390	1.203	.190	.281	.289	.570

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections