Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

July 11, 2026 · Eduardo Rivera vs Freddy Peralta · 78°F

1.3% edge · Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox win

43.1%

New York Mets win

56.9%

Fair line (home)

-132

Proj. total

8.26

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 3.89)New York Mets (mean 4.37)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.26

Over

46.3%

Under

53.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	43.1%	+134	+132
New York Mets	56.9%	-146	-132

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Anthony Seigler	4.7	.609	.193	.024	.076	.606	1.106	.220	.327	.335	.662
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.6	.700	.207	.031	.134	.240	1.041	.248	.296	.403	.698
Wilyer Abreu	4.5	.569	.190	.022	.177	.508	1.115	.240	.330	.432	.762
Caleb Durbin	4.4	.638	.215	.016	.110	.351	.601	.247	.325	.393	.718
Masataka Yoshida	4.3	.733	.181	.017	.103	.333	.655	.264	.332	.398	.730
Andruw Monasterio	4.2	.606	.182	.006	.080	.395	1.050	.232	.311	.347	.658
Jarren Duran	4.1	.509	.170	.046	.114	.349	1.119	.227	.301	.390	.691
Carlos Narváez	4.0	.497	.146	.005	.109	.392	1.191	.213	.298	.348	.647
Tsung-Che Cheng	3.9	.501	.128	.027	.053	.359	1.083	.204	.283	.302	.584

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.7	.787	.192	.026	.068	.515	1.117	.261	.347	.369	.716
Juan Soto	4.5	.595	.135	.019	.229	.984	.760	.276	.436	.519	.955
Francisco Lindor	4.4	.675	.164	.022	.149	.427	.840	.257	.343	.424	.767
Carson Benge	4.3	.732	.156	.025	.108	.410	.931	.263	.340	.399	.739
Jorge Polanco	4.2	.590	.140	.003	.145	.453	.904	.235	.323	.390	.713
Eric Wagaman	4.1	.651	.161	.022	.096	.349	.951	.248	.316	.379	.696
Francisco Alvarez	4.0	.544	.140	.008	.162	.401	1.046	.240	.324	.420	.744
Brett Baty	3.9	.591	.132	.013	.106	.388	1.013	.242	.323	.379	.702
Zack Short	3.8	.422	.115	.006	.062	.503	1.149	.186	.302	.283	.585

Data notes: away starter Eduardo Rivera: only 6 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Eduardo Rivera: only 4 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections