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Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

July 12, 2026 · Payton Tolle vs Zach Thornton · 78°F
4.9% edge · New York Mets
Boston Red Sox win
45.8%
New York Mets win
54.2%
Fair line (home)
-118
Proj. total
8.32

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

0%8%15%036912151821Runs scored
Boston Red Sox (mean 4.06)New York Mets (mean 4.26)

Totals

O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.32
Over
41.6%
Under
50.0%

Model vs. market

SideModelBookFair
Boston Red Sox45.8%-107+118
New York Mets54.2%-101-118

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Anthony Seigler4.8.652.202.015.071.534.960.225.320.332.652
Ceddanne Rafaela4.6.746.223.034.136.227.887.261.305.422.727
Wilyer Abreu4.5.625.203.023.173.464.969.253.333.444.777
Romy Gonzalez4.4.731.188.040.130.2611.032.264.313.423.736
Caleb Durbin4.3.668.208.017.103.310.497.255.325.396.721
Andruw Monasterio4.2.645.184.007.079.365.905.240.313.355.667
Jarren Duran4.1.547.195.051.112.3321.005.243.312.412.724
Nate Eaton4.0.598.159.018.087.264.958.234.291.357.649
Connor Wong3.9.587.174.009.082.290.911.241.308.365.672

New York Mets — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
A.J. Ewing4.6.775.191.027.092.4431.119.264.339.391.730
Juan Soto4.5.611.139.018.279.848.750.291.428.5711
Francisco Lindor4.4.650.161.015.183.360.846.256.330.445.775
Eric Wagaman4.3.642.169.023.130.3181.001.245.305.400.705
Carson Benge4.2.674.155.024.129.352.924.260.330.417.747
Tyrone Taylor4.1.587.181.019.120.207.931.239.288.392.680
Luis Torrens3.9.595.171.007.099.260.904.239.296.371.668
Brett Baty3.8.588.129.011.125.3241.023.246.315.397.712
Zack Short3.7.413.115.005.077.4321.154.188.288.297.585
Data notes: home starter Zach Thornton: only 18 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Zach Thornton: only 24 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections