Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

July 25, 2026 · Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Nolan McLean · 75°F

1.0% edge · Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers win

59.5%

New York Mets win

40.5%

Fair line (home)

+147

Proj. total

8.76

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 4.95)New York Mets (mean 3.82)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.76

Over

56.3%

Under

43.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Dodgers	59.5%	-148	-147
New York Mets	40.5%	+136	+147

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Shohei Ohtani	4.9	.593	.162	.041	.259	.777	1.262	.258	.382	.508	.890
Andy Pages	4.8	.696	.210	.012	.174	.352	1.071	.249	.316	.422	.738
Freddie Freeman	4.7	.729	.211	.013	.154	.561	.909	.273	.371	.446	.817
Max Muncy	4.6	.489	.137	.013	.193	.705	1.176	.218	.350	.413	.763
Mookie Betts	4.5	.666	.188	.018	.149	.510	.600	.259	.350	.430	.779
Tommy Edman	4.4	.672	.148	.029	.092	.333	.913	.236	.305	.357	.662
Kyle Tucker	4.3	.578	.156	.020	.154	.619	.779	.252	.366	.434	.800
Teoscar Hernández	4.2	.575	.155	.007	.164	.317	1.204	.238	.305	.412	.717
Dalton Rushing	4.0	.496	.145	.006	.135	.425	1.143	.221	.315	.380	.695

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.5	.750	.170	.025	.079	.422	1.190	.250	.324	.361	.684
Francisco Lindor	4.4	.645	.149	.024	.160	.389	.923	.246	.324	.416	.740
Bo Bichette	4.3	.763	.187	.009	.119	.271	.853	.268	.318	.408	.726
Carson Benge	4.2	.652	.142	.024	.116	.328	1.032	.242	.308	.382	.689
Luis Robert Jr.	4.1	.557	.137	.006	.146	.317	1.249	.224	.291	.380	.671
Jorge Polanco	4.0	.536	.130	.004	.157	.399	.951	.230	.313	.400	.713
Marcus Semien	3.9	.549	.121	.014	.122	.340	.821	.228	.300	.373	.673
Brett Baty	3.8	.547	.115	.011	.109	.332	1.083	.228	.301	.363	.665
Francisco Alvarez	3.7	.459	.114	.007	.163	.316	1.042	.224	.299	.410	.709

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections