Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

July 29, 2026 · Chris Sale vs Christian Scott · 76°F

1.5% edge · New York Mets

Atlanta Braves win

58.8%

New York Mets win

41.2%

Fair line (home)

+143

Proj. total

7.89

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.47)New York Mets (mean 3.42)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.89

Over

47.8%

Under

52.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	58.8%	-160	-143
New York Mets	41.2%	+147	+143

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.8	.698	.142	.010	.209	.453	1.029	.247	.326	.431	.758
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.7	.669	.153	.016	.199	.640	1.066	.261	.371	.457	.828
Matt Olson	4.6	.562	.182	.005	.246	.547	1.183	.249	.344	.482	.826
Michael Harris II	4.5	.751	.175	.021	.194	.202	.941	.269	.307	.458	.765
Ozzie Albies	4.4	.671	.172	.009	.140	.327	.698	.249	.313	.402	.716
Mauricio Dubón	4.3	.730	.175	.013	.091	.248	.615	.254	.302	.373	.675
Mike Yastrzemski	4.1	.486	.140	.018	.148	.462	1.038	.218	.313	.390	.703
Austin Riley	4.0	.542	.144	.011	.155	.324	1.194	.233	.304	.406	.711
Jim Jarvis	3.9	.590	.144	.017	.045	.320	.800	.224	.296	.313	.608

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.4	.636	.154	.014	.151	.315	1.033	.238	.312	.397	.709
Bo Bichette	4.3	.775	.187	.010	.117	.236	.935	.268	.314	.405	.719
Luis Robert Jr.	4.2	.566	.142	.006	.142	.287	1.373	.220	.283	.369	.651
Francisco Alvarez	4.1	.526	.126	.008	.180	.314	1.248	.223	.293	.405	.698
Tyrone Taylor	4.0	.542	.168	.020	.103	.172	1.083	.220	.266	.356	.622
Marcus Semien	3.9	.544	.118	.015	.115	.295	.910	.220	.286	.357	.642
Carson Benge	3.8	.583	.132	.020	.101	.270	1.004	.240	.303	.376	.679
Eric Wagaman	3.7	.529	.135	.019	.090	.225	1.021	.225	.278	.353	.631
Luis Torrens	3.6	.495	.144	.007	.074	.198	.937	.217	.272	.332	.604

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections